ProShares Ultra Gold ETF is initiated with a 'buy' rating, targeting traders seeking leveraged exposure to gold's ongoing breakout. UGL offers 2x daily gold returns, outperforming miners and spot ETFs during bullish trends, but is best suited for short-term strategies. Mining stocks present alternative 'leveraged' gold exposure, but UGL avoids risks like equity dilution, management, and jurisdiction issues.
Gold has outperformed major asset classes, but momentum is slowing and other metals are currently leading in 2025. I rate ProShares Ultra Gold ETF (UGL) a hold, citing risks of leveraged ETFs and gold's technical resistance at $3,500. Periods of high volatility and seasonality make UGL less attractive now; a breakout above $3,500 would improve the outlook.
Leveraged ETFs have a non-linear behavior, and their price may drift relative to the underlying. This article reports drift data for 22 of them. ProShares Ultra Gold ETF shows significant decay in the long term due to beta-slippage and contango.
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The fund aims to achieve its investment goal by primarily engaging in various Financial Instruments including swap agreements, futures contracts, forward contracts, and option contracts, based on its benchmark index. It operates under normal market conditions and adjusts its investment strategies according to the discretion of the Sponsor. The fund is not designed to invest directly in commodities, instead, it focuses on derivatives and financial instruments that mirror the performance of its benchmark.