United Parcel Service, a global parcel delivery and supply chain management company, is now a $118 billion (by market cap) package delivery monster. UPS has increased its dividend for 15 consecutive years, with a 10-year dividend growth rate of 10.1%. UPS advanced its revenue from $58.2 billion in FY 2014 to $91 billion in FY 2023, a compound annual growth rate of 5.1%.
Management expects strong earnings growth momentum in the second half. UPS' medium-term growth plans involve growing its healthcare and revenue from small and medium-size business.
UPS is implementing automation and consolidation initiatives to boost productivity and counter wage inflation and volume declines. Investors are understandably nervous, but we believe this has created a good buying opportunity. Despite current challenges, there are signs that UPS's competitive moat remains strong, and shares look attractively priced if management delivers on its targets.
2023 was challenging for UPS, but management believes 2024 will be a year of recovery. The company's three-year plan involves continuing its highly successful initiatives in meeting the specific needs of small and medium-sized business and healthcare business, and investing in technology.
UPS badly overestimated post-pandemic consumer behavior trends. Investors should hold UPS accountable for its three-year plan.
The payout ratio is significantly higher than management's target. UPS has no intention to cut the dividend and is committed to grow it.
The stock is a good option for income-seeking investors. If UPS hits its earnings targets, investors can expect dividend increases in the future.
UPS has been losing market share to Amazon, but still has a solid competitive position and is exposed to ongoing growth in eCommerce. The overcapacity problem in the small parcel market is expected to improve as eCommerce demand normalizes and structural growth resumes. UPS's strong relationships with businesses and its ability to cater to a wider range of delivery needs may help it maintain market share and profitability.
UPS shares have dropped nearly 17% in the last year and are trailing behind FedEx and the S&P 500 Index. Despite recent weak performance, UPS's valuation has become more attractive. There is potential for earnings growth to reaccelerate in the next few years, making UPS a good long-term investment.
UPS is a business logistics leader that offers a high dividend yield of 4.7%. The global shipping company has raised its dividend for the past 15 straight years.
UPS (UPS) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock?
UPS is in recovery mode after a highly challenging 2023. Margins should improve as delivery volumes improve and the company laps cost increases in last year's numbers.