The iShares MSCI World ETF has trailed the S&P 500 over the past decade, notwithstanding a marginal outperformance in 2025. The ETF is principally overweight in U.S. megacap tech stocks, resulting in a high trailing P/E ratio. URTH also has a sizable position in cyclical sectors. As such, returns in 2026 will depend on how AI-related stocks perform, as well as the overall economic momentum of the global economy.
URTH is overly concentrated in US equities, offering little true international diversification and closely mirroring S&P 500 performance at lower volatility. A simple 70% SPY + 30% cash or risk-free assets portfolio outperforms iShares MSCI World ETF on both returns and drawdown protection. For genuine global diversification, combining SPY with targeted ex-U.S. developed (IEFA) and emerging markets (VWO/IEMG) ETFs is a superior approach.
URTH's price is closely tied to GDP projections, EPS estimates, and stock market performance, with a 2025 global GDP growth estimate of 3.3% and U.S. GDP at 2.7%. Trump's tariffs could increase global inflation by 0.5% and reduce global GDP growth by 0.8%, impacting URTH's key sectors: technology, consumer discretionary, and real estate. Despite tariffs, the S&P 500's EPS growth rate could remain positive, potentially benefiting URTH, which holds 75% of U.S. stocks.
| ARCA Exchange | US Country |
This entity operates as an investment fund, focusing on allocating its resources predominantly in the equity securities that are part of its underlying index. These equities represent companies from large to mid-capitalization segments across developed market countries. The investment strategy emphasizes not only direct investment in the securities that constitute the index but also in financial instruments that mirror the economic traits of these securities. By doing so, the fund aims to closely track the performance of its benchmark index, which is curated to reflect the market dynamics and valuation of selected companies operating within developed economies.
The fund primarily invests in the component securities of the underlying index. These are equity securities of companies that are deemed to have significant market capitalization and operate within the developed markets. This strategy is designed to ensure that the fund's performance closely aligns with the market trends and valuation changes of these large and mid-cap entities.
In addition to direct investment in component securities, the fund also allocates assets towards investments that exhibit economic characteristics substantially identical to those of the index securities. This includes derivative contracts and other financial instruments that are constructed to replicate the performance of the index components. This approach allows the fund to maintain a diversified and balanced portfolio that mirrors the market performance of the underlying index.