The yield on the 10-year note finished December 12, 2025 at 4.19%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.52% and the 30-year note ended at 4.85%.
The yield on the 10-year note finished December 5, 2025 at 4.14%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.56% and the 30-year note ended at 4.79%.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, a key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.