The Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares ETF (SPXS) is comparatively less risky but may offer less reward.
Despite fundamental and technical reasons to short the market, it's best not to short the ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF currently. SQQQ has declined about 20% since the initial recommendation, highlighting the difficulty of timing the market correctly. The market can rise for numerous unpredictable reasons, making it risky to bet against it.
April 9th, 2024 saw a historic 12.2% Nasdaq rally, signaling potential volatility and further declines in high-flying tech stocks. The ProShares UltraShort QQQ ETF is a leveraged fund designed for short-term tactical trading, not long-term holding. Historical patterns suggest large single-day Nasdaq gains often precede further market declines, akin to the dot-com era.
The SQQQ ETF, a 3x leveraged inverse fund for the Nasdaq-100, is highly risky and not ideal for long-term hedging. Leveraged ETFs like SQQQ are designed for short-term trading and can lead to significant losses due to the decay effect. Statistically, during downturns, the largest intraday rebounds occur, thereby increasing the risk of decay.
The UltraPro Short QQQ ETF is highly risky for retail investors due to its leverage and potential for total loss over time. Fundamental and technical indicators suggest the Nasdaq-100 is overextended, but timing a short position is extremely challenging and risky. Simplify Market Neutral Equity Long/Short ETF offers a safer alternative for aggressive investors, balancing long and short positions without market risk.
The Fed's 50bps cut led to market euphoria, and the S&P500 broke to new all-time highs. However, market internals showed sluggish performance with fewer stocks breaking out and leading stocks like the "Mag 7" stuck in range. Seasonality, stretched valuations, and crowded trades suggest "Mag 7" stocks may not lead soon, impacting QQQ's rally sustainability.
The SQQQ ETF offers 3x inverse daily returns on the NASDAQ-100 Index, ideal for single-day trades due to daily resets. Economic indicators suggest a softening economy, with mixed CPI data and more contractionary ISM-PMI prints, impacting consumer and discretionary spending. AI/ML applications are driving enterprise efficiency, but economic hardships may impact the broader market, which may indirectly affect NASDAQ's top constituents, leading to heightened market volatility.
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF provides -3x exposure to the Nasdaq. Its returns are slightly better than -3x due to low volatility and high index moves. SQQQ also accumulates a dividend. SQQQ is best suited for short-term trading and is a high risk, high reward. Holding long-term can trap you in an unrecoverable position.
Leveraged ETFs have become increasingly popular with investors looking to magnify their returns fast.