Tesco Plc's (LSE:TSCO) new full-year guidance was the "important takeaway" from the grocer's third-quarter like-for-like sales, that's according to Deutsche Bank. The German bank, which retains a 'buy' recommendation, noted that the quarter's sales were below its expectations, reported at 3.1% versus analysts' anticipating 3.9%.
Tesco PLC (TSCDY) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Shares in Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) fell 5% to 430.42p on Thursday, as another robust trading update ran into a familiar problem for the UK's biggest supermarket: expectations that have risen almost as fast as its market share. The figures were largely positive, but investors focused on what was, by Tesco's own lofty standards, a relatively modest period of growth and a weaker contribution from Booker, its wholesale arm.
The supermarket chain said like-for-like group sales excluding fuel increased 2.9% on year for the 19 weeks ending Jan. 3.
Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) said it now expects to deliver profits at the upper end of City expectations after a strong third quarter and Christmas period, helped by market share gains, robust fresh food sales and rapid growth online. Britain's biggest supermarket group said on Thursday that it expects full-year adjusted operating profit for 2025/26 to come in at the top end of its previously stated £2.9 billion to £3.1 billion range.
UK supermarket trading updates due this week are expected to confirm a solid Christmas period for the sector, with Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) and J Sainsbury PLC (LSE:SBRY) once again emerging as the clear winners, according to analysts at Citi and Deutsche Bank. Tesco reports on Thursday, covering its third quarter and the key six-week Christmas period.
Tesco share price has remained in a narrow range in the past few months despite the company's growing market share and profitability growth. It was trading at 442.2 on Monday, inside a narrow range it has remained at since December.
Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO), Next PLC (LSE:NXT) and Primark owner Associated British Foods PLC (LSE:ABF) have been downgraded by investment bank Jefferies, citing a growing disconnect between like-for-like (LFL) retail sales and the UK's weakening disposable income outlook. Jefferies' research on consumer cashflows projects disposable income growth slowing to 1.9% in the 2026-27 fiscal year, down from 2.6% in 2025-26, with weaker wage growth and rising unemployment weighing on households.
Citi has taken a selective stance on Europe's retail and brands sector for 2026, arguing that a sluggish economic backdrop means investors should favour companies with clear structural advantages. Its top picks are Inditex (buy) and Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) (buy), while Associated British Foods PLC (LSE:ABF) is rated 'sell'.
Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) and J Sainsbury PLC (LSE:SBRY) are currently enjoying a "supportive environment" from a pace of new discounter store development well below historical averages, according to a new research note from UBS. Using geospatial data from the UBS 'Evidence Lab' unit, UBS retail analysts observed that industry-wide space growth is running at around 1.0%, significantly below the pre-Covid average of 2.6%.
Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) shares fell after grocery market data showed its rate of sales growth slowing in recent weeks, while J Sainsbury PLC (LSE:SBRY) popped higher as growth held steady, though wider spending was curtailed due to pre-Budget jitters. Grocery price inflation held steady at 4.7% last month, according to the Worldpanel supermarket till report from Numerator, formerly Kantar, with supermarket sales rose 3.4% over the four-week period, below the rate of inflation.
Investor positioning in the European retail sector has shifted subtly but meaningfully over the past month, according to a new UBS analysis, with Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) and Next PLC (LSE:NXT) particular favourites. The bank's crowding framework – which emphasises changes in positioning over one- and three-month periods – shows investors leaning more toward buying rather than betting against the stocks, with food retailers seeing the most pronounced improvement in support.