Adobe stock has continued to disappoint as its AI growth inflection has yet to demonstrate its full potential. Management's underwhelming guidance suggests patience is needed as Adobe navigates near-term monetization headwinds. Adobe's solidly profitable business model and relative attractiveness underscore my conviction in its bullish thesis.
Despite strong Q4 and FY24 results, ADBE's stock dropped due to conservative FY25 guidance, creating a buying opportunity with a 29% upside potential. Monetizing Generative Credits and launching the Firefly Video Model are crucial for ADBE's growth; delays could hinder the company's AI-driven revenue potential. Document Cloud's AI tools drove 17% y/y revenue growth, showcasing the importance of AI in ADBE's product suite and future growth.
ADBE remains the market leader in Application Development and Graphic SaaS markets, as observed in its ability to increasingly monetize existing users and grow new adoptions. The management's lower than expected FY2025 guidance may be attributed to a sandbagging strategy, as observed in the top/ bottom-line beats over eight consecutive quarters. While the aggressive share repurchases may have impacted its balance sheet health, ADBE remains profitable enough to do so, with it also directly being accretive to its adj EPS growth.
Adobe's stock dropped 13% post-earnings as strong Digital Media ARR and backlog growth in 4Q FY2024 were offset by weaker-than-expected revenue guidance for FY2025. Revenue growth continues to show YoY deceleration, despite strong demand for GenAI-related products. The margin outlook remains healthy, though there are no clear signs of expansion.
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Seema Mody dives into Adobe's sharp move lower, and what investors are expecting from Broadcom as it tries to compete with Nvidia.
Adobe reported an 11% constant revenue growth and 13% adj. EPS growth in Q4 FY24, with a lower-than-expected guidance for FY25. I believe the broad availability of Firefly Video Model in early 2025, and the upcoming higher-priced Firefly subscription, could potentially accelerate its revenue growth. Adobe is guiding for around 8.8% revenue growth and around 10.2% adjusted EPS growth for FY25, slightly lower than the market expectations.
Adobe (ADBE) became the biggest laggard on the S&P 500 with investors not responding well to the company's earnings. Sandra Cho argues it comes down to the company's lack of A.I.
Adobe shares tumbled after the software vendor issued revenue guidance that fell short of analysts' estimates. Adobe said it expects revenue for the fiscal first quarter of $5.63 billion to $5.68 billion.
Adobe is our Chart of the Day after tumbling on disappointing guidance. Jim Lebenthal owns it and isn't selling, he discusses why.
I'm initiating Adobe with a buy after a 12% sell-off post-Q4 so far because I see an opportunity in the market's not-so-optimistic outlook on the business and its AI monetization. Adobe didn't guide too well for two quarters in a row compared to Mr. Market's expectations, and I think the company is more likely to outperform expectations in 2025. I believe Adobe's focus on quality and usability over immediate profits in AI will play off big time down the road.
Adobe (ADBE) shares dropped Thursday after the company's results the day before came with an underwhelming revenue outlook, but analysts still have largely bullish, if tempered, expectations for artificial intelligence (AI) monetization by the company.