ASML Holding N.V.'s latest results suggest the risk of flat growth in 2026 despite strong AI sector headlines. I think the bullish views may be missing important warning signs. Demand for new machines is falling while used equipment sales rise, hinting at deeper industry trouble just as inventories pile up in semiconductor companies. I expect the unfavorable used vs. new unit mix trends to persist, and this can put further pressure on management's already downgraded gross margin outlook.
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ASML remains a Hold due to valuation concerns, with the stock still priced for high growth despite recent Q2 results and a lack of 2026 growth guidance. Tariff impacts and supply chain uncertainties present significant risks, potentially squeezing margins and affecting future profitability. Current free cash flow and premium multiples offer little margin of safety, especially if negative scenarios from Q2 materialize.
ASML's Q2 earnings exceeded expectations with strong sales, high gross margins, and robust share buybacks, reinforcing my confidence in the company. Management continues to underpromise and overdeliver, maintaining a conservative outlook while consistently beating their own guidance. Short-term uncertainty for 2026 revenue growth exists due to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, but long-term 2030 targets remain intact.
ASML (NASDAQ:ASML), the Dutch semiconductor equipment giant, saw its stock fall about 11% following its Q2 2025 earnings report, as the company warned that it could no longer guarantee that its topline would grow in 2026, overshadowing what was otherwise a strong quarter. Revenue came in at 7.7 billion euros ($8.9 billion), at the upper end of guidance, while net income stood at 2.3 billion euros ($2.67 billion).
I focus on wide-moat, growth-driven, financially robust companies trading below fair value, following Buffett's simplicity philosophy for long-term investing. Salesforce, ASML, and Equinix each lead their industries, benefit from strong secular trends, and offer sustainable dividend growth with low payout ratios. All three boast investment-grade credit ratings and robust balance sheets and are currently trading at attractive discounts to fair value estimates.
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ASML's sharp post-earnings drop is justified by increased uncertainty for 2026, but the long-term growth story and market dominance remain intact. Management's refusal to guide for 2026 reflects only short-term macro and geopolitical risks, not a fundamental change in business outlook. Service revenue growth and a robust installed base provide stability, supporting double-digit annual growth potential through 2030 with improving margins.
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First system sold and robust financials, though 2026 growth forecast withdrawn, the long-term AI-driven story remains intact. ASML boasts strong revenue, profit growth, balance sheet, margins, and capital returns, while maintaining high R&D investment for innovation. At a TTM P/E of 28, ASML is historically cheap, which could provide a great entry point. Longer-term technicals support this thesis.
ASML Holding posted solid Q2 results, but bookings remain volatile and growth visibility for 2026 is lacking, raising concerns about future momentum. Management's lack of confidence in 2026 growth is a major red flag, especially in the context of ongoing macro and industry headwinds. Despite strong technical moats and compressed valuation, I see no justification to upgrade my rating until High-NA proves itself.
ASML Holding N.V.'s Q2 results beat expectations on sales, profits, and net bookings, but a muted 2026 growth outlook triggered a sharp stock selloff. Despite near-term uncertainty, robust AI demand and strong data center trends support my bullish long-term thesis for ASML stock. ASML is trading at a reasonable valuation compared to peers, with rising margins and solid fundamentals in the EUV equipment market.