Atkore: Benefiting From Tariff Policies, But Will Wait
Atkore Inc. (NYSE:ATKR ) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call February 4, 2025 8:00 AM ET Company Participants Matt Kline - Vice President of Treasury & Investor Relations Bill Waltz - President & Chief Executive Officer John Deitzer - Vice President & Chief Financial Officer John Pregenzer - Chief Operating Officer & President of Electrical Conference Call Participants Andy Kaplowitz - Citigroup Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets David Tarantino - KeyBanc Capital Markets Chris Dankert - Loop Capital Chris Moore - CJS Securities Operator Good morning. My name is John and I'll be your conference operator today.
Atkore Inc. (ATKR) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.63 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.50 per share. This compares to earnings of $4.12 per share a year ago.
Atkore Inc. has faced a downward trend since mid-2024 due to pessimism in the construction and electrical industries and falling sales. Despite revenue drops, Atkore maintains strong pro-shareholder policies with dividends and share buybacks, showcasing resilience. A DCF valuation with conservative assumptions reveals significant upside potential, supported by a Price to Cash Flow ratio of 5.3x.
Atkore's results have fallen sharply. But it looks worse than it really is, mainly because the peak from which it plunged was unusually high thanks to post-pandemic buying and the onset of the Fourth (automation-oriented). Interestingly, though, today's so-called bust looks a lot better than anything the company did pre-pandemic.
The stock price of Atkore (NYSE: ATKR), an electrical safety products' manufacturer, rose 5% on Friday, November 22. The company reported mixed results for the fourth quarter on November 21 while its outlook for fiscal 2025 was dismal.
Atkore Inc. (NYSE:ATKR ) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call November 21, 2024 8:00 AM ET Company Participants Matt Kline - Vice President, Treasury and Investor Relations Bill Waltz - President and Chief Executive Officer John Deitzer - Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants David Tarantino - KeyBanc Capital Markets Deane Dray - RBC Chris Moore - CJS Securities Chris Dankert - Loop Capital Alex Rygiel - B. Riley Natalie Bach - Citigroup Operator Good morning.
Atkore stock has recently experienced a significant price crash, presenting a potential buying opportunity for retail investors. Discounted Cash Flow analysis supports ATKR stock's undervaluation and highlights its long-term growth prospects. Despite certain risks, the recommendation is to buy, based on strong fundamentals and substantial upside potential.
Atkore's shares have dropped significantly since June, but I see value based on the initial outlook for 2025, and a balanced capital allocation model. The company is seeing margin revert to normal after they rose spectacularly in a post-pandemic environment. Continued softness in pricing and demand, alongside an antitrust lawsuit, impacts the short-term outlook, but fundamental earnings support remains at 15 times earnings.
Valuation suggests Atkore is moderately undervalued, with potential upside of 27% based on continued aggressive buybacks and assuming market recovery from 2025 onwards. DMI indicates non-residential construction activity is going to increase over the coming 12 months, which will benefit ATKR. The Company's margins are expected to remain above pre-2020 levels due to increased electrical conduit and tubing demands, especially from data centers and renewables buildout.
ATKR stock has lost almost half its value in the last 4 months, and is currently trading below its key moving averages. We examine some of the key drivers behind the ongoing weakness. We then touch upon a few reasons why investors can afford to be hopeful at this stage.
Call Start: 08:00 January 1, 0000 8:45 AM ET Atkore Inc. (NYSE:ATKR ) Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call August 6, 2024 08:00 ET Company Participants Matthew Kline - Vice President of Treasury & Investor Relations Bill Waltz - President & Chief Executive Officer David Johnson - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Andrew Kaplowitz - Citigroup Alex Rygiel - B. Riley Deane Dray - RBC Chris Moore - CJS Securities Chris Dankert - Loop Capital Operator Good morning.