Centene on Friday reported a surprise quarterly loss after the health insurer warned of a revenue slump from government-backed plans, sending its shares down nearly 3% in premarket trading.
Centene Corporation ( CNC ), a giant of managed care expected to cross $175 billion in revenues this year, unexpectedly pulled its earnings guidance for 2025 on July 2. This change came after an unexpected shift in the dynamics of the health Insurance Marketplace, which could impact earnings more significantly than what was initially forecasted.
CNC's Q2 earnings are likely to have felt the pinch as rising medical costs pressure margins despite higher premium revenues.
Evaluate the expected performance of Centene (CNC) for the quarter ended June 2025, looking beyond the conventional Wall Street top-and-bottom-line estimates and examining some of its key metrics for better insight.
CNC is trading at half of book value and under 9x earnings, an extreme undervaluation for a cash-generating insurer. The recent guidance cut is a temporary earnings reset, not a structural issue -- premium increases and cost controls will restore margins as per standard industry cycles. Market panic and mechanical selling have created a rare value opportunity; insurance fundamentals and rate adjustments ensure earnings normalization over time.
Centene (CNC) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
Centene's stock plunged after withdrawing 2025 guidance due to higher medical costs, but the selloff appears to be a capitulation event. The stock is deeply oversold, trading at just 10x reduced 2025 earnings, with a strong balance sheet and potential for a sharp rebound in 2026-2027. Challenges include Medicaid cuts and higher-risk policyholders, but corrective pricing actions and sector defensiveness in a recession offer upside.
The Big Beautiful Bill Act cuts $1 trillion from Medicaid from which Centene gets 58% of its revenue. After plunging 40% will the stock drop more?
MOH slashes 2025 EPS outlook by more than 10%, citing rising medical costs and echoing warnings from CNC and UnitedHealth.
CNC has been deeply punished for the suspended FY2025 adj EPS guidance, after supposedly reiterating the prior numbers in the FQ1'25 earnings call. It is apparent that the higher medical care activities have impacted the healthcare providers'/ insurance's bottom-lines, worsened by the headwinds arising from One Big Beautiful Bill. Even so, the worst may already be baked into CNC's overly discounted valuations / stock prices, with the normalization likely to trigger rich upside potentials to its current BV of $56.11.
For healthcare stock Centene NYSE: CNC, July 2 was indisputably disastrous. Shares closed down by over 40% that day, resulting in the firm losing over $11 billion in market capitalization.
The insurer says earnings pressure is expected to continue into the second half of the year.