Evolution AB remains a Strong Buy, despite mixed Q4 2024 results, with 12.3% growth and promising RNG segment performance. Revenue growth in North America is strong, but Asia's stagnation and unresolved cyberattacks pose challenges. The company announced a €2.8 per share dividend and a €500 million share buyback program, enhancing shareholder value.
Evolution AB dominates the live online casino market with a 60-70% share, leveraging scale economies and high-quality execution to maintain superior margins and profitability. The company boasts a strong balance sheet with $830 million in cash, no long-term debt, and significant operational leverage due to minimal marginal costs. Regulatory concerns are overblown; the market's fear of unregulated revenue is an opportunity, not a risk, given the likely shift to regulated environments.
Evolution AB's stock keeps falling, but the business keeps growing and is expected to grow further. My reverse DCF valuation suggests that the market is pricing in low-single-digit FCF/share growth in perpetuity, which seems very pessimistic for a growth stock. Evolution AB has an impressive 8%+ free cash flow yield and is buying back shares.
Despite a 6% stock drop due to cyberattacks in Asia, Evolution AB (publ) shows strong growth with increased revenues, EBITDA, and net income. Evolution's high profitability, double-digit growth, and successful expansion in the U.S. market make it a compelling investment despite temporary issues in Asia. A new €500 million buyback plan and increased dividend highlight Evolution's commitment to shareholder returns, with a current dividend yield of 3.50%.
Evolution AB's shares have declined 60%+ since 2021 despite improved metrics. This suggests either previous overvaluation or current exaggeration to the downside, indicating a potential investment opportunity. Considering the growth rates of the underlying online casino markets, the company is offering a big upside right now.
Evolution AB is the uncontested market leader in live casino solutions, with a proven business model and significant growth potential, despite a 35% YTD stock decline. The company boasts a strong moat due to scale, a superior product portfolio, and high switching costs, ensuring long-term competitive advantages. Management excels in capital allocation, with high insider ownership, strong ROIC, and shareholder-friendly policies like dividends and share buybacks.
Evolution AB, a leading B2B online casino service provider, has strong and improving fundamentals despite a stock price decline since May 2021. The company's primary revenue source is live casino operations, contributing over 85% of total sales, with a market cap around USD 17.2 billion. Despite the stock price drop, Evolution's profit and operating cash flow have doubled, with operating income up nearly 400%.
Evolution AB offers high profit margins, double-digit growth rates, and a PEG ratio of 0.93x, making it an undervalued investment. Evolution's games, like Crazy Time, are highly engaging and profitable, contributing to its strong financial performance and competitive advantage over peers. The company maintains a robust dividend policy, distributing at least 50% of profits, with a 5-year CAGR of 44% in dividends per share.
Evolution AB remains a Strong Buy due to its low valuation, high returns on capital, solid growth, and robust free cash flow despite recent headwinds. Q3 challenges included a strike in Georgia, cyberattacks in Asia, and slower RNG growth, impacting the financials. Evolution's fundamentals are strong with 14.7% net revenue growth, high profitability, and a solid capital allocation strategy including buybacks and dividends.
I upgrade Evolution AB to a 'strong buy' due to 14.7% revenue growth and EBITDA margin improvement to 68.5%, despite negative factors. The company faced challenges like a cyberattack and a strike in Georgia, but still showed strong revenue growth and market resilience. Evolution's competitive advantages are increasing through acquisitions, game development, and geographic expansion, making it difficult for competitors to catch up.
Evolution, a leading iGaming company, has seen its stock consolidate since 2021 and its valuation compress to the current P/E of 16. High insider ownership and an impressive track record shows a strong alignment between the management and the shareholder base. Evolution's asset-light, recurring revenue business model and strong MOAT deserves a higher valuation as temporary concerns start to fade.
Evolution AB has become undervalued after three years of stock-price stagnation. My reverse DCF valuation calculator suggests that the market is implying low-single-digit FCF/share growth over the long term, which looks way too low for this company. Evolution's capital allocation strategy, involving dividends, buybacks, organic investments, and M&A, is a recipe for long-term success, in my view.