EWP: After The Sunshine Comes The Storm
iShares MSCI Spain ETF has surged nearly 60% YTD, driven by high concentration in top Spanish banks and utilities. EWP's explosive growth appears unsustainable, with cyclical price patterns and macro fundamentals not supporting further upside at current levels. The ETF's extreme concentration and sector exposure create significant correction and diversification risks, outweighing potential short-term gains.
EWP: Long-Term Investors Won't Find Many Good Reasons To Own Spanish Equities
Spanish equities, via EWP, have surged 45% YTD, outperforming European peers and attracting momentum investors. Despite strong performance and economic tailwinds, I believe EWP's sector and stock selection is not optimal for long-term returns. Spanish equity valuations are in line with their historical average, meaning they may be less of a bargain than the low earnings multiple versus peers may suggest.
EWP: Spanish Stocks Are Outpacing Everyone Else
The iShares MSCI Spain ETF offers a 3.46% dividend yield and focuses on financials, utilities, and industrials, with financials comprising 38.21% of the portfolio. Spain's economic indicators, including a 3.4% GDP growth rate and a low 10.61% unemployment rate, support a favorable short-term investment environment. Spain's political landscape, with the PSOE coalition focusing on social democracy and green investments, boosts short-term growth but may pose long-term fiscal risks.
EWP: Another Trump Trade Beneficiary?
The iShares MSCI Spain ETF (EWP) is poised for growth, driven by potential lower energy costs and Spain's robust economic outlook. EWP's top holdings, Iberdrola, Banco Santander, and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, are well-positioned to benefit from a favorable macro environment and technical support. Spain's economy is projected to grow rapidly, and EWP's concentrated portfolio offers exposure to key sectors like Financials, Utilities, and Industrials.
