Altice USA's long-term contracts with 4.6 million customers make future revenue and FCF forecasts straightforward, supporting a positive investment outlook. The company has shown consistent net income and FCF growth, with significant investments in property and equipment enhancing economies of scale. Recent debt reduction and restructuring efforts could positively impact stock valuation, despite challenges from competition and interest rate risks.
Carnival has gained +40% since my first article, where I highlighted that 60% upside was possible due to FCF growth and debt repayment. The basis of the analysis is the relationship between Enterprise Value and Market Cap, with debt repayment expected to transfer value from bondholders back to shareholders. Carnival generated more FCF than I expected in FY '24, which is a positive tailwind for future years. My updated forecast sees no issue in terms of debt repayment.
TD SYNNEX's impressive quarterly free cash flow and reduced restructuring costs, alongside ongoing stock repurchases, suggest strong future financial performance and undervaluation. SNX's expertise and long-standing industry presence, combined with potential future acquisitions, are expected to drive substantial revenue and free cash flow growth. Risks include potential impacts from new tariffs, lack of long-term contracts, dependency on key suppliers like Apple and HP, and low operating margins.
LyondellBasell Industries presents a compelling value play with a low P/E ratio and anticipated EPS recovery in FY 2025 and 2026. Despite recent earnings misses and macro headwinds, LYB's free cash flow yield is over 6%, and the stock offers a high dividend yield. Technical analysis indicates LYB is at critical support levels, suggesting a 'buy the dip' opportunity ahead of the Q4 earnings report.
Digital Turbine, Inc. is undergoing a significant reorganization, exiting legacy platforms to focus on more profitable business lines, promising future free cash flow growth. The company's tools, such as SingleTap and Application Media, enhance app installs and monetization, making it attractive to OEMs and investors. Despite recent revenue declines due to strategic exits, APPS shows strong free cash flow growth and trades at attractive valuation multiples, making it a buy.
Companhia Siderurgica: Limited Tariffs And Vertical Integration Could Multiply FCF
Technip Energies N.V. excels in LNG, hydrogen, and ethylene construction, with strong free cash flow and a promising future in CO2 management and green hydrogen. THNPY reported a 10% revenue increase and a 33% higher EPS in the first nine months, validating my initial investment thesis. Technip Energies' 2025 and 2028 guidance shows significant revenue and EBITDA growth, with a cumulative free cash flow of 2.2-2.6B EUR for 2024-2028.
Newell Brands is undergoing a transformation with new real estate plans and centralization of tech and sales teams, aiming for efficiency improvements and economies of scale. Despite recent lower EPS figures, the company's proven business model and positive cash flow suggest future growth, supported by restructuring and asset optimization. NWL's stock repurchases at $22 and $25.86 indicate undervaluation at close to $10 per share, with a target valuation of $14-$15 per share.
AB InBev looks like a good relative value opportunity down 25.8% from 52-week highs and now giving a 8.50% free cash flow yield from a stable mature company. The company's Q3 results show 2.1% revenue growth despite a 2.4% volume decline, driven by a 4.6% price increase. The company posted a 7.1% YoY increase in normalized EBITDA, with disciplined SG&A costs and EBITDA margin expansion to 36.0%.
Traditional free cash flow (FCF) ETFs may have missed out on investing in Vistra (VST) and NRG Energy (NRG) before the two stocks saw impressive growth. NRG and Vistra are high-performing stocks that have benefited from the surge in electricity demand.
FCF's acquisition of CenterGroup will strengthen the former's commercially focused strategy in the Cincinnati market by adding a 65% business client base.
Investors may be able to enhance a portfolio's risk-adjusted returns by pairing a free cash flow (FCF) ETF with their growth exposure. FCF represents the cash a company generates after accounting for cash payments to support operations and maintain its capital assets.