Nebius remains a buy as technicals and fundamentals show strong momentum, despite recent consolidation and a premium valuation. Q1 earnings highlight explosive revenue and ARR growth, with management projecting continued rapid expansion and positive adjusted EBITDA in H2 2025. While the P/S ratio is high, recent contraction offers a compelling entry for risk-tolerant investors as the AI growth story remains intact.
I maintain a positive, long-term view on Nebius shares, with fair value per share now at $55.5, up 27% from my prior estimate. Nebius AI's strong revenue growth, expanding data center capacity, and improving EBITDA loss drive my bullish thesis, despite high CapEx. Significant revaluation of ClickHouse boosted my Nebius's overall business value.
Nebius Group N.V. has surged +90% over the past month, and with an RSI of 79 and premium multiples, the stock is dangerously priced for perfection. Nebius is our favorite of the neocloud bunch, with healthier financials and diversified revenue streams, but market confidence is turning toxic, and we think investors should trim. NBIS stock trades at extreme premium multiples (EV/Sales 56x, P/S 90x), making it overpriced versus peers and vulnerable to a correction.
Nebius Group N.V. delivered stellar Q1 growth (385% YoY), driven by GPU cloud adoption, showing powerful margin leverage—exactly the scale-driven story investors should seek in hyper-growth AI infrastructure. Aggressive yet thoughtful North American expansion, strategic Toloka funding, and cutting-edge Nvidia tech position Nebius to quickly challenge hyperscale incumbents—making this a rare entry point. My $60 price target (50% upside) for NBIS anticipates EBITDA breakeven in 2026, supported by strong cash reserves, disciplined cost management, and significant incremental gross margin potential beyond 60%.
Nebius Group is experiencing rapid growth in its data center business, driven by generative AI demand, but lacks a sustainable competitive moat. I remain bearish due to concerns over long-term profitability, high churn risk, and the likelihood of ongoing capital needs to fund growth. NBIS's current valuation is not attractive, even under aggressive growth and margin assumptions, especially compared to more established cloud peers.
Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ:NBIS ) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call May 20, 2025 8:00 AM ET Company Participants Neil Doshi - Head of IR Arkady Volozh - Founder and CEO Andrey Korolenko - Chief Product & Infrastructure Officer Daniel Bounds - Chief Marketing Officer Roman Chernin - CBO Tom Blackwell - CCO A - Neil Doshi The Nebius Group's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call.
NBIS benefits from expanding infrastructure offerings, but intense competition from tech behemoths and macroeconomic challenges remain concerns.
I reiterate my 'Strong Buy' on Nebius Group, expecting Q1 2025 results to become a bullish catalyst after recent operational and strategic progress. Despite a prior revenue miss, NBIS is debt-free, well-funded, and diversified, with underestimated consensus forecasts and a visible path to EBITDA breakeven. Nebius's in-house hardware/DC design, diversified business structure, debt-free balance sheet, and highly skilled (yet potentially more cost-effective) ex-Yandex team give it an edge over competitors.
Investors looking for a balance of risk and reward might turn to mid-cap stocks. Companies in this category may have a similar growth potential as smaller firms with a bit more of the stability typically seen in larger businesses.
I have initiated coverage on Nebius Group with a Buy rating, highlighting its compelling AI workload solutions and significant growth potential. Nebius operates through four branches, offering scalable AI solutions using Nvidia GPUs, with high capital expenditures expected as the business scales. Despite current losses, Nebius shows promising revenue growth and maintains a strong cash position, primarily from divestments and private placements.
Nebius is doubling down on GPU capacity, targeting 250% ARR growth, and is better capitalized than its rival CoreWeave. Hyperscalers and enterprises are increasingly renting GPUs from neocloud providers like Nebius, boosting demand and positioning Nebius for rapid growth. Nebius's diversified business units, including Toloka AI and Avride, are growing rapidly, supported by strategic partnerships and investments.
Nebius continues aggressively enhancing its AI infrastructure and strategic partnerships, driving significant innovation and cross-selling potential. The company's strong balance sheet, with $2.5 billion in cash and minimal debt, supports aggressive expansion and potential acquisitions. Valuation analysis suggests a fair share price of $57, indicating a 126% upside.