Annaly (NLY) possesses the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
Investors looking for ways to find stocks that are set to beat quarterly earnings estimates should check out the Zacks Earnings ESP.
Annaly (NLY) saw its shares surge in the last session with trading volume being higher than average. The latest trend in earnings estimate revisions could translate into further price increase in the near term.
Since my writing on Annaly Capital Management, Inc., several new catalysts have shifted its risk/return ratio materially. The top catalyst is the recent inversion of the long-short yield curve. This heightens both the earning and valuation risks for NLY stock.
NLY's strong liquidity position and diversified investment approach look encouraging. Read on to see if it is the right time to buy the stock.
Here is how Annaly Capital Management (NLY) and Amerisafe (AMSF) have performed compared to their sector so far this year.
Stop looking at charts from periods of economic strength and look at periods of economic weakness to project forward outlooks. Buy investments that will generate outsized income in difficult situations. After years of shrinking dividends, the dividend is growing again.
Mortgage REITs like Annaly Capital Management's common stock are high-risk and best treated as trading securities, not buy-and-hold investments. Annaly's preferred shares, particularly NLY-I, carry minimal risk except for call risk. The call risk is nasty. NLY-I's current price of $25.87 risks a $0.71 per share loss if called, making it prudent to wait for a better entry point.
In the latest trading session, Annaly Capital Management (NLY) closed at $21.61, marking a -0.32% move from the previous day.
Since December, Annaly Capital Management has delivered a 16% total return, outperforming the S&P 500, driven by lower mortgage spreads. Unlike most stocks, NLY remained roughly flat over the past month, signaling surprising defensive value in agency mortgage REITs. Although a recession may increase mortgage credit risks, most of Annaly's assets are guaranteed by agencies; though Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remain undercapitalized.
NLY increases the first-quarter 2025 dividend by 7.7% to 70 cents per share. Given its decent liquidity, capital distribution seems sustainable.
Since my last writing, long-term treasury rates have declined enough to cause a negative yield spread, a potential headwind for NLY. However, the narrowing of the yield spread is more than offset by other positive developments. The top two on my list are the bullish technical trading patterns and also the outlook of future interest cuts in the next ~3 months.