The highly anticipated 'duration trade' in long bonds like TLT has underperformed despite the Fed lowering rates by 100bp since their peak. TLT's price hasn't rebounded as expected because its yield hasn't shifted enough, even though short-term rates have declined. In fact, YoY, long rates have risen! I've consistently favored the short end of the curve, particularly the SGOV ETF, which has provided reliable returns during this period. I continue to endorse it moving forward.
Roundhill Weekly T-Bill ETF offers weekly income from 13-week T-bills, but charges a high 0.19% fee, making WEEK less cost-effective. iShares® 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF provides similar ultra-short Treasury exposure with a lower fee and monthly payouts, tracking an index passively. For investors who can look past the extremely short history for a weekly payout, the WEEK ETF gets a Buy rating. For others, I stick with the SGOV ETF.
SGOV has been a reliable income generator, but its yield is declining, making it less attractive compared to TLT with more upside potential. The Fed's likely rate cuts in 2025 will further reduce SGOV's yield, while TLT could benefit from rising bond prices in a lower-rate environment. SGOV's dividend income has dropped from over 5% to 4.37%, and longer-duration bonds like TLT offer better prospects as rates decline.
![]() SGOV In 2 weeks Estimated | Monthly | $0.35 Per Share |
![]() SGOV 2 weeks ago Paid | Monthly | $0.35 Per Share |
![]() SGOV 4 months ago Paid | Monthly | $0.31 Per Share |
![]() SGOV 5 months ago Paid | Monthly | $0.36 Per Share |
![]() SGOV 6 months ago Paid | Monthly | $0.37 Per Share |
![]() SGOV 7 months ago Paid | Monthly | $0.38 Per Share |
![]() SGOV In 2 weeks Estimated | Monthly | $0.35 Per Share |
![]() SGOV 2 weeks ago Paid | Monthly | $0.35 Per Share |
![]() SGOV 4 months ago Paid | Monthly | $0.31 Per Share |
![]() SGOV 5 months ago Paid | Monthly | $0.36 Per Share |
![]() SGOV 6 months ago Paid | Monthly | $0.37 Per Share |
![]() SGOV 7 months ago Paid | Monthly | $0.38 Per Share |
ARCA Exchange | US Country |