Constellation Brands remains a sell as business fundamentals deteriorate, with no credible signs of stabilization or turnaround. STZ's Q1 2026 saw organic sales down 8% and operating income down 13%, with beer volumes falling 8.7% and the wine segment in operating loss. Despite a low P/E ratio, STZ's high EV/FCF multiple (25–26x) is unjustified for a shrinking, structurally challenged business.
Waning consumption of alcohol is taking a toll on this company's top and bottom lines. Investors may be too focused on the past and present when they should be looking to the future.
STZ leans into premiumization, innovation and strong beer momentum to capture shifting consumer tastes and fuel growth.
Constellation Brands is deeply undervalued and poised for recovery as capital rotates from overheated AI stocks to defensive consumer staples. STZ's focus on high-margin beer, strategic premiumization, and cost-saving restructuring position it well despite recent sales declines and sector headwinds. STZ trades at attractive valuation metrics versus peers, with a strong dividend history and robust governance supporting medium- to long-term value creation.
Constellation Brands is facing softer demand, but trends are stabilizing, inventories are lean, and easier comparisons should help revenue performance improve through FY26 and recover in FY27. Strong execution around innovation, pricing flexibility, and shelf-space expansion is helping Constellation gain share despite macro pressures, positioning it well for growth when volumes rebound. Margins and earnings should recover as cost-saving programs ramp up, volume trends normalize, and valuation re-rates closer to historical levels, offering attractive upside for long-term investors.
Since hitting rock bottom, Warren Buffett's $2.2 billion bet, Constellation Brands NYSE: STZ, has managed to stage a modest recovery. Constellation shares fell to less than $132 in late September.
Consumers are buying less alcohol in 2025.
Constellation Brands (STZ) remains a Buy, supported by strong fundamentals, premium brand leadership, and long-term upside despite recent macro headwinds and weak stock performance. STZ's latest results showed resilient cash flow and improved equity from net debt reduction, with ongoing investments in Mexican beer operations and cost-saving initiatives. Macro factors such as more anticipated rate cuts and premiumization trends position STZ for future growth, while tariffs and consumer demand remain near-term risks.
RBC Capital Markets analysts believe Constellation Brands Inc (NYSE:STZ)'s earnings per share “aftermath was better than feared” but expect the numbers to be rangebound until the company's volumes gain momentum. In a note to clients on Wednesday, the analysts called Constellation's overall quarter “solid” given the muted expectations and poor investor sentiment.
Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ ) Q2 2026 Earnings Call October 7, 2025 8:00 AM EDT Company Participants Blair Veenema William Newlands - President, CEO & Director Garth Hankinson - Executive VP & CFO Conference Call Participants Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division Nadine Sarwat - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC.
Constellation Brands underwhelmed investors yesterday with its disappointing Q2 FY26 results. The company reported a bigger YoY contraction in sales than that seen in Q1 FY26, and the non-GAAP operating profit contracted YoY too, even as the operating margin remains strong. Despite multiple downgrades to the earnings outlook, the stock's forward P/E looks low, but it can be explained by the company's weakening fundamentals.
While the top- and bottom-line numbers for Constellation Brands (STZ) give a sense of how the business performed in the quarter ended August 2025, it could be worth looking at how some of its key metrics compare to Wall Street estimates and year-ago values.