TLT: An Unique Asymmetrical Opportunity
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF offers thematic exposure to long-term treasury bonds with a 16.13 effective duration, providing potential for capital gains and income stability. A hard landing U.S. recession scenario seems likely, and TLT ETF can capitalize on pre-recession yield curve movements, presenting an active opportunity for excess return-seeking bond investors. Technical supply/demand concerns are evident. However, a shift might occur in due course.
TLT: Two Positives From The Tariffs
Reciprocal tariffs announced by President Trump have caused significant market shifts, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF breaking to a new 2025 high. Long-term yields are influenced by inflation expectations and lower growth expectations; currently, growth concerns dominate. Tariffs could generate $600B annually for the government, reducing UST issuance and positively impacting TLT.
Trade Tracker: Joe Terranova adds to his TLT position
Joe Terranova, Senior Managing Director for Virtus Investment Partners, joins CNBC's "Halftime Report" to explain why he's adding to his TLT position for the third time.
Trade Tracker: Joe Terranova buys more of TLT
Joe Terranova, Senior Managing Director for Virtus Investment Partners, joins CNBC's "Halftime Report" to explain why he's buying more of TLT.
SPY Vs TLT: Trump Put Likely To Mitigate Stagflation Risks
Market volatility continues driven by Trump's tariff policy, with the S&P 500 nearing correction territory as recession risks rise, indicating that we are not out of the woods yet. Tariff-driven inflation could lead to a recession (or stagflation), but a Trump Put may mitigate SPY's downside risk, with the 10% correction already pricing in some recession fears. Consumer sentiment continues to deteriorate, whereas the job market remains resilient. The decade-tight credit spread and muted VIX level suggest that the bottom may not have formed yet.
Trade Tracker: Joe Terranova buys the TLT
Joe Terranova, Senior Managing Director for Virtus Investment Partners, joins CNBC's "Halftime Report" to explain why he's buying the Treasury Bond ETF.
Chart Of The Day: Buy Or Sell This 'Mystery' Fund?
It's easy to make a case against US Treasuries. Yet, from a technical perspective, there's a lot to like. What message is the “mystery” MoneyShow Chart of the Day sending?
TLT Vs. EDV: Why I Prefer EDV And How I Allocate It Dynamically
A 40-60 bond-equity allocation model, or other fixed allocation models, could miss critical market junctures. This is why I use a dynamic allocation method based on bonds' valuations relative to other assets. The current spread between SP500 CAPE yield and long-term treasury rates is toward the thinner end of the historical spectrum.
TLT: Recession Narrative Is Back In Play
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF remains a STRONG BUY due to signs of economic slowdown, moderating inflation, and favorable bond market conditions. Recent economic data points to slowing growth, with lower consumer confidence, decreased personal spending, and higher jobless claims. Capital market yields dropped significantly, driven by increased recession discounting and a moderate reduction in term premia.
Final Trade: GM, X, TLT, BYD
The final trades of the day with CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders.
TLT: The Safe-Haven Bid May Come Back With A Vengeance
The TLT offers investors exposure to a portfolio of bonds with a longer-than-average maturity and duration, and currently yields 4.6%. The current yield is above the likely rate of nominal GDP growth over the long term, making the TLT a strong buy-and-hold investment. It also has the potential to rise strongly should the stock market roll over, where a 1pp decline in yields could net TLT holders 20% in total return terms.
4 Macro Scenarios Holding Me Back From TLT (For Now)
4 Macro Scenarios Holding Me Back From TLT (For Now)
