Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries have trended lower lately with bond markets pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut as early as September. Aside from the usual Fed speculation, add in some extra uncertainty for the U.S. presidential election and interest rate traders may see some action in coming weeks and months.
The anticipation for the first rate cut in this rate cycle keeps on building as capital markets hope to see one at least before 2024 comes to a close. Meantime, hopes for looser monetary policy can drive specific leveraged ETFs higher.
Signs of cooling inflation are bringing bond bulls back as the Federal Reserve recently kept interest rates unchanged yet again. Bond bulls, however, are betting on rate cuts propping up prices as the second half of 2024 may see the first of said cuts.
A bond rally could be in the works as incoming economic data could hint at a cooling economy. That could bring the 2% target inflation rate closer for the Federal Reserve.
More fund managers are starting to add bonds to their portfolios again. That's evidenced by allocations in the last few months.
The Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF offers 3x leverage on a portfolio of 20-year bonds. TMF is attractive due to the potential for a rebound in bonds and a developing breakout on the chart. Risks include negative compounding and the possibility of a spike in yields breaking the 2023 low in TLT.