Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) concluded the recent trading session at $45.05, signifying a -3.97% move from its prior day's close.
UPST trades at a premium valuation despite a sharp stock drop, as investors weigh strong growth, AI gains and macro-driven volatility.
Recently, Zacks.com users have been paying close attention to Upstart (UPST). This makes it worthwhile to examine what the stock has in store.
Upstart is rated a BUY due to strong execution, AI-driven loan automation, and compelling forward valuation multiples after a significant share price decline. UPST's Q3 saw 80% YoY transaction volume growth, 128% increase in loans approved, and positive operating income, highlighting robust operating leverage and profitability momentum. The company has secured long-term funding agreements, including a $1.5B deal with Castlelake which stabilizes Upstart's business and supports continued growth despite potential macroeconomic headwinds.
Initiate coverage on Upstart Holdings, with a hold rating. Q3 showed Upstart's model can scale profitably, but macro and credit headlines can quickly cap loan originations and pressure guidance. Q3 delivered strong growth (originations $2.9B, +80% YoY; revenue $277.0M, +71% YoY), yet still missed Street revenue and originations expectations. Macroeconomic stress, tightening lending models, and recent private credit bankruptcies (especially in auto loans) raise concerns about sustaining growth and guidance.
Recently, Zacks.com users have been paying close attention to Upstart (UPST). This makes it worthwhile to examine what the stock has in store.
UPST adjusts its AI underwriting as rising risk trims conversions, with new calibration tools aimed at steadier approvals and broader loan expansion.
UPST's expanding push into auto, home, and small-dollar lending gains traction as new products scale and funding partners grow.
UPST's sharp three-month drop contrasts with a strong quarter as model shifts, funding gains and macro sensitivity shape a cautious hold outlook.
Zacks.com users have recently been watching Upstart (UPST) quite a bit. Thus, it is worth knowing the facts that could determine the stock's prospects.
It's time to upgrade the stock, as recent stock price declines create an attractive entry point for growth-focused investors. Upstart continues to deliver solid revenue growth and profitability, despite recent margin contraction and decelerating guidance due to macroeconomic caution. Valuation is compelling at under 3x forward sales, with a PEG ratio around 0.5x, though long-term business model quality remains a concern.
Upstart Holdings, Inc. ( UPST ) Q3 2025 Earnings Call November 4, 2025 4:30 PM EST Company Participants Sonya Banerjee - Head of Investor Relations David Girouard - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Chairperson of the Board Paul Gu - Co-Founder, CTO & Director Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Dan Dolev - Mizuho Securities USA LLC, Research Division Kyle Peterson - Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division Peter Christiansen - Citigroup Inc. Exchange Research Simon Alistair Clinch - Rothschild & Co Redburn, Research Division Patrick Moley - Piper Sandler & Co., Research Division Mihir Bhatia - BofA Securities, Research Division Reginald Smith - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division James Faucette - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Robert Wildhack - Autonomous Research US LP John Hecht - Jefferies LLC, Research Division Presentation Operator " Sonya Banerjee Head of Investor Relations " David Girouard Co-Founder, President, CEO & Chairperson of the Board " Paul Gu Co-Founder, CTO & Director " Sanjay Datta Chief Financial Officer " Dan Dolev Mizuho Securities USA LLC, Research Division " Mizuho Securities USA LLC, Research Division Kyle Peterson Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division " Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division Peter Christiansen Citigroup Inc. Exchange Research " Citigroup Inc. Exchange Research Simon Alistair Clinch Rothschild & Co Redburn, Research Division " Rothschild & Co Redburn, Research Division Patrick Moley Piper Sandler & Co., Research Division " Piper Sandler & Co., Research Division Mihir Bhatia BofA Securities, Research Division " BofA Securities, Research Division Reginald Smith JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division " JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division James Faucette Morgan Stanley, Research Division " Morgan Stanley, Research Division Robert Wildhack Autonomous Research US LP " Autonomous Research US LP John Hecht Jefferies LLC, Research Division " Jefferies LLC, Research Division Operator Good afternoon, and welcome to the Upstart Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call.