I maintain a Hold rating on Wayfair due to solid execution and improving fundamentals, but near-term macro volatility and limited visibility hinder upside potential. Wayfair's Q1 2025 results showed flat revenue, improved gross profit margins, and better-than-expected adj. EBITDA, but free cash flow remains negative. Positives include increased supplier ad spending, sourcing flexibility, and improved capital structure, positioning Wayfair for long-term growth despite current challenges.
Wayfair's logistics expertise and cost focus have led to margin gains despite flat revenue, but declining active buyers and tariff risks remain concerns. The company has shut down unprofitable segments like Germany, impacting international revenue, but U.S. revenue grew 1.6% y/y. The stock's valuation at 11.1x EV/FY25 adjusted EBITDA is cheap but balanced by operating risks and lack of immediate growth catalysts.
W's first-quarter 2025 results benefit from a healthy performance in the U.S. segment.
The headline numbers for Wayfair (W) give insight into how the company performed in the quarter ended March 2025, but it may be worthwhile to compare some of its key metrics to Wall Street estimates and the year-ago actuals.
Wayfair Inc. (NYSE:W ) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call May 1, 2025 8:00 AM ET Company Participants Ryan Barney - Head of IR Niraj Shah - CEO, Co-Chairman and Co-Founder Kate Gulliver - CFO and Chief Administrative Officer Conference Call Participants Christopher Horvers - JPMorgan Jonathan Matuszewski - Jefferies Brian Nagel - Oppenheimer Ygal Arounian - Citi Michael Lasser - UBS Simeon Gutman - Morgan Stanley Peter Keith - Piper Sandler Operator Thank you for standing by. My name is Kayla and I will be your conference operator today.
Wayfair (W) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.10 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.18 per share. This compares to loss of $0.32 per share a year ago.
The home furnishings retailer posted adjusted first-quarter earnings of 10 cents a share, far better than consensus estimates.
W's Q1 results are likely to have benefited from CastleGate and targeted ad spend. However, its German exit is expected to have pressured revenues.
Beyond analysts' top -and-bottom-line estimates for Wayfair (W), evaluate projections for some of its key metrics to gain a better insight into how the business might have performed for the quarter ended March 2025.
Wayfair (W) possesses the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
A new 46% tariff on Vietnam could soon raise costs for major corporations in the apparel, furniture and toy space, and some of them may hike prices for consumers. The country became a popular alternative for companies trying to avoid the crossfire of U.S. trade tensions with Beijing.
W grows its international footprint and leverages AI, but macroeconomic and forex headwinds suggest investors can wait for better entry points in 2025.