BTI's rally has occurred relatively fast and furious, underscoring the bullish market sentiments surrounding its new category reversal after the prior expensive write-downs. Much of the tailwinds are attributed to Vuse's market leadership and Velo's growing volume/market share in the US, implying its robust vaping/oral approaches. This is aided by the new category's positive gross margins, with it likely to drive bottom-line expansions despite the growth headwinds arising from the illicit market and combustibles secular decline.
With recent market highs and no shortage of thrills, some investors might be ready to turn the excitement down a notch or two. Tobacco companies often pay high dividend yields backed by decades of proven reliability supported by durable revenues. Six tobacco companies were evaluated using a relative quality matrix with factors including yield, payout ratio, value, profitability, growth, and leverage.
British American Tobacco offers strong capital returns, driven by robust free cash flow and a low earnings-based valuation, making it a compelling value investment. Momentum in alternative products like Velo is offsetting declines in traditional tobacco, supporting future growth in a challenging market. Aggressive marketing and ambitious medium-term goals in smoke-free products position BTI for sustained top line and earnings momentum.
BTI's Glo Hilo heated tobacco device rollout has disappointed, with lackluster performance and unclear management communication raising concerns about its competitive potential. Nicotine pouches, especially Velo Plus in the US, are showing explosive growth and high margins, positioning British American Tobacco for strong future profitability in this segment. Despite challenges in new products, the Company remains attractively valued with a low P/E ratio and a robust 7% dividend yield, providing a margin of safety.
BTI remains undervalued, offering a secure 6% dividend yield, with recent US market improvements enhancing long-term dividend sustainability. Key positives include US growth, resolution of the Canada settlement, and Velo Plus gaining share, though illicit vape challenges persist. Transformation is slower than peers, but BTI's diversified, multi-category approach and strong cash flow support continued dividend payments and deleveraging.
British American Tobacco has re-rated materially from a sub 6X P/E to a current P/E of 10X. Returns based on management guidance look relatively unexciting, but there's more to the story. Turning the tide on illicit disposables in the U.S. and exciting prospects for Modern Oral could provide multi-year tailwinds for growth, boosting earnings above management guidance.
These four dividend stocks are trading below $50 and have a yield higher than 4%.
British American Tobacco (BTI) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), reflecting growing optimism about the company's earnings prospects. This might drive the stock higher in the near term.
Here at Zacks, our focus is on the proven Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find great stocks. Nevertheless, we are always paying attention to the latest value, growth, and momentum trends to underscore strong picks.
With the price upside for 2025 projected for BAT exhausted now since the time I last checked on it, another look at it was warranted. The company's just released trading update adds further insight into this update, especially as it includes a revenue outlook upgrade. Updated estimates reveal that the stock is in a strong position compared with peers in terms of market valuations, and its dividend yield continues to add to its appeal.
BTI is navigating headwinds in combustibles and vaping, but gains in oral products and New Categories support modest revenue growth forecasts for 2025. The company's strong free cash flow, safe dividend, and ongoing ITC stake monetization bolster the balance sheet and support shareholder returns. Valuation remains attractive at 7.2x EBITDA, offering significant upside potential if growth improves, especially compared to peers like Altria and Philip Morris.
British American Tobacco p.l.c. (NYSE:BTI ) Q1 2025 Sales/Trading Statement Call June 3, 2025 3:30 AM ET Company Participants Victoria Buxton - Group Head, IR Tadeu Marroco - Chief Executive Soraya Benchikh - CFO Conference Call Participants James Edwardes-Jones - RBC Gaurav Jain - Barclays Faham Baig - UBS Rey Wium - Anchor Stockbrokers Philip Spain - JP Morgan Bastien Agaud - Bank of America Rashad Kawan - Morgan Stanley Simon Hales - Citi Victoria Buxton Good morning, everyone.