PM has raised its quarterly dividend by 8.9%, underscoring growth through smoke-free products, cost savings and strong brands.
Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM ) Barclays 18th Annual Global Consumer Staples Conference 2025 September 2, 2025 11:15 AM EDT Company Participants Jacek Olczak - CEO & Director Conference Call Participants Gaurav Jain - Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division Presentation Gaurav Jain Research Analyst Good morning, everyone. Thank you for being here.
Philip Morris' Q2 Zyn volumes missed expectations in the US, but strong overall SFB growth reinforces my long-term buy thesis as the company pivots to smoke-free products. SFB now represents 23% of volumes and 43% of gross margin, with superior unit economics—each SFB unit is twice as profitable as combustibles. Key metrics to track: sustained positive volume growth, SFB gross margin share surpassing 50%, and maintaining strong SFB unit economics without margin sacrifice.
PM's second-quarter results show smoke-free gains lifting revenues and profit, even as cigarette volumes continue to decline.
Philip Morris International's growth is driven by smoke-free products like IQOS and ZYN, with strong sales momentum post-Swedish Match acquisition. Despite robust operational performance and a raised outlook, the stock's valuation appears stretched with an EV/FCF of 31x and a historically low 3.1% dividend yield. Much of the recent growth seems to be already priced in, and further upside seems limited, making the risk/reward profile unattractive at current levels.
Philip Morris (PM) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock?
Philip Morris is the world's largest publicly traded 'sin' stock, valued at over $250 billion. The company has a strong track record of outperforming the market, driven by its shareholder return focus. Recent earnings suggest PM still has significant growth potential ahead.
Philip Morris' smoke-free growth is strong, but cigarette declines and a premium valuation urge cautious investment moves.
PM has already captured $1.2 billion in savings by mid-2025, keeping it on track to hit its $2 billion cost-cutting target by 2026.
ILUMA's broader launch and expanded consumables range are contributing to PM's heated tobacco growth in 2025.
ILUMA's broader launch and expanded consumables range are contributing to PM's heated tobacco growth in 2025.
Haypp remains our largest position, offering rapid growth, a defensible moat, and high-margin insights business in the booming nicotine pouch market. X-FAB is attractively valued with two near-term catalysts: capacity expansion and a new dividend, plus strong insider ownership and overlooked profit growth. We exited Dream International after a 160% return, as the stock is no longer cheap post-Labubu news and lacks a clear catalyst for further upside.