Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: U.S. stock indexes are significantly overvalued. This suggests cautious expectations for investment returns.
This article looks at the 10-year Treasury yield's historical trends since 1962, exploring its relationship with key economic indicators like the Fed Funds Rate (FFR), inflation, and the S&P 500. The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 28, 2025 at 4.27%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.89% and the 30-year note ended at 4.64%.
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 21, 2025 at 4.25%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.94% and the 30-year note ended at 4.59%.
On this episode of the ETF of the Week podcast, VettaFi's Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the Vanguard 0 to 3 month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair covered a range of topics related to the fund, providing investors with a deeper understanding of the ETF.
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 14, 2025 at 4.31%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.02% and the 30-year note ended at 4.62%.
Ultra-short treasuries are recommended due to the rising spread against 10Y notes, signaling a potential recession despite mixed economic indicators. Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF offers protection and liquidity with an expected SEC yield of around 4.2% and a low expense ratio. Equities have peaked, making bonds more attractive; commodities are at their cycle trough, validating the business cycle's current stage.
VettaFi's Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL) on this week's “ETF of the Week” podcast with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.” For more news, information, and strategy, visit the Fixed Income Channel.
Inflation is showing early signs of retreating, which can be beneficial for rising bond prices. Nonetheless, even the best bond market prognosticators can't predict what direction rates and yields head.
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 7, 2025 at 4.32%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.99% and the 30-year note ended at 4.62%.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, a key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, a key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.