A high dividend yield is typically a red flag. But there are some exceptions. I highlight 3 REITs with yields of up to 8% that I am buying.
Armada Hoffler Properties (AHH) has severely underperformed both the broader market and real estate sector benchmarks over 1- and 10-year periods. Despite a high forward dividend yield, recent dividend cuts and weak balance sheet metrics raise concerns about income safety and financial health. Our Moody's-based credit analysis results in a Ba3 rating for AHH and a B2 rating for its preferred stock, reflecting elevated credit risk.
I acknowledge investor frustration over Armada Hoffler's dividend cut and stock decline, but emphasize the underlying cash flow remains intact. The market overreacted to the dividend cut, ignoring that per-share earnings were simply being allocated differently, not destroyed. While trust, leverage, and dividend coverage are flagged as risks, I argue these concerns are overstated and explain why.
Well-covered 8% yields with attractive long-term growth potential and quality underlying business models are hard to come by. Fortunately, Mr. Market is offering several of these opportunities right now. I share 2 that look highly compelling right now.
Many REITs are down over 50% from their highs. They could more than double in value just to reach their previous peaks. We highlight two such REITs that could enjoy explosive upside in the recovery.
With the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond currently yielding 4.38%, interest rates are still abnormally high given positive job growth, trillions of dollars in U.S.
REITs are the ultimate investment to retire early. They offer high yields, steady growth, and inflation protection. Many are heavily discounted, and you could earn up to $50,000 with just $573,400 invested.
The current environment is uniquely challenging, with uncertainty persisting and no clear catalyst for a recovery. Growth is richly priced, and, in my view, an unattractive space. This makes value and income investor areas relatively more interesting.
AHH has been a disaster investment case. This year, the dividend has been cut, and the share price has declined by ~20% even though relatively recently there was a notable equity raise. The P/FFO multiple has now dropped to a dirt-cheap/hotel-like level.
I view mREITs as a Hold due to yield curve risks, while high-quality equity REITs like Armada Hoffler Properties offer more stable income and upside potential. AHH's leverage is elevated, but manageable if rate cuts arrive within its debt maturity window, reducing refinancing risk. Dividend coverage is robust with a 56% payout ratio and a healthy 14.5% FFO yield, supporting sustainable income despite shrinking FFO.
AHH.PR.A provides investors with a 6.75% fixed dividend payment. The financial position of Armada Hoffler remains strong because it uses 100% fixed-rate debt with an average cost of 4.2%. The portfolio consists of 44% retail, 36% office and 20% multifamily with high occupancy and strong lease structure.
The US-China trade deal reduces the risk of higher inflation. It should give the Fed more flexibility to cut interest rates. This would be very bullish for REITs and push their valuations to much higher levels.