Yields are drying up as rates are poised to move lower, but high-yield option trades remain interesting to us. SMH is a great candidate for selling put options. The underlying portfolio is high quality, and the fund has enough volatility to generate a significant yield. There are some risks, but we think selling $235 strike, September put options could yield meaningful cash, with a strong margin of safety.
For SMH to maintain a CAGR performance similar to the last decade (>24%), there must also be a positive evolution in earnings expectations. Its structure helps: it's hyper-concentrated on the sector's core companies. For many, that's a risk, for me, it's potentially an alpha-driven feature. The fact remains: it trades at a premium, even with earnings expectations still at record highs in the info tech sector.
The semiconductor sector has reported a massive reversal after the worst of the market-wide meltdown in April 2025 and the market's fears surrounding the potentially slowing AI spending cadence. With SMH's top three holdings delivering double beat performances and raised future guidance, it is unsurprising that the consensus have raised their forward estimates. On the other hand, it is apparent that their rallies may have occurred overly fast and furious, as observed in the ETF's expensive valuations compared to its peers.
The Nasdaq's "V" bottom recovery has defied bearish predictions, driven by a pause in tariffs and strong tech earnings, particularly in AI sectors. Semiconductor investors should stay confident, as AI growth fears were overstated, with Nvidia's transition to Blackwell and TSMC's investments anchoring the AI thesis. Despite cyclical headwinds in non-AI segments, the semiconductor industry's forward P/E and PEG ratios suggest a buying opportunity, with resilient price action supporting this view.
With the U.S. and China hitting pause on tariffs, markets are breathing a sigh of relief. Here are three ETF that strategies investors can follow to capitalize on the trade truce.
Subscribers to Chart of the Week received this commentary on Sunday, May 4.
If you're feeling overwhelmed by the stock market right now, you're not alone. The S&P 500 had one of its fastest drops on record in early April, and the Nasdaq Composite hurtled into a bear market, falling more than 20% from its high just in February.
If you're interested in broad exposure to the Technology - Semiconductors segment of the equity market, look no further than the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), a passively managed exchange traded fund launched on 12/20/2011.
Tech giants roared, adding to strong market gains last week. Tariff fears cooled a bit amid prevailing uncertainty.
Recent developments have made the return/risk ratio from SMH far more attractive than that from the general tech sector represented by QQQM. The market has overacted to the near-term impacts from tariff rates while underestimating the secular growth potential for the holdings in SMH. The holdings in SMH play a foundational role in the exponential growth of our digital future, such as AI applications.
The ongoing tariff/ trade war and the higher recessionary risks may trigger a painful "wave of order cancellations through the supply chain," contributing to SMH's steep selloff. It remains to be seen if the AI spending trends and the ongoing data center capex boom may be durable, with it potentially impacting the semiconductor company's future performance. Even so, SMH remains attractive due to the top three holdings' cheap valuations and oversold status, compared to historical trends.
President Trump's reciprocal tariffs have caused mayhem in semiconductor stocks. The established semi supply chain could be upended as Trump looks set to bring manufacturing prowess back to the US. TSMC as we know it might have to contend with a new order while working with Intel to remodel American semiconductor manufacturing.