Evaluate the expected performance of Elastic (ESTC) for the quarter ended July 2025, looking beyond the conventional Wall Street top-and-bottom-line estimates and examining some of its key metrics for better insight.
Elastic offers a narrow-to-strong economic moat across Search, Security, and Observability, with cross-sell opportunities. Despite macro headwinds this year, especially in the US public sector, I estimate ~15% peak revenue growth for fiscal 2028, and expanding margins through 2034. My base-case Fair Value estimate for ESTC stock is $97.25, ~30% potential upside from the current price ($74.5).
Elastic's fundamentals remain strong despite a recent stock price drop, creating a compelling buying opportunity as AI adoption continues to accelerate. ESTC is well-positioned to benefit from AI trends, with its leadership in vector search and growing cloud revenue likely to drive future growth. The company's conservative FY2026 guidance is likely overly cautious; I expect Elastic to beat estimates and see its valuation re-rate higher.
26 Nov 2025 (In 3 months) Date | | 0.59 Cons. EPS | - EPS |
21 Nov 2025 (In 2 months) Date | | - Cons. EPS | - EPS |
4 Sep 2025 (In 1 week) Date | | 0.42 Cons. EPS | - EPS |
28 Aug 2025 (In 1 day) Date | | 0.42 Cons. EPS | - EPS |
30 May 2025 Date | | 0.37 Cons. EPS | 0.47 EPS |
26 Nov 2025 (In 3 months) Date | | 0.59 Cons. EPS | - EPS |
21 Nov 2025 (In 2 months) Date | | - Cons. EPS | - EPS |
4 Sep 2025 (In 1 week) Date | | 0.42 Cons. EPS | - EPS |
28 Aug 2025 (In 1 day) Date | | 0.42 Cons. EPS | - EPS |
30 May 2025 Date | | 0.37 Cons. EPS | 0.47 EPS |
Software - Application Industry | Technology Sector | Ashutosh Kulkarni CEO | XDUS Exchange | NL0013056914 ISIN |
US Country | 3,403 Employees | - Last Dividend | - Last Split | 5 Oct 2018 IPO Date |
Elastic N.V. is a data analytics firm that specializes in creating solutions that operate effectively within public and private cloud environments, as well as across multi-cloud systems. Founded in 2012 and headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Elastic N.V. focuses on offering a suite of software products, collectively known as the Elastic Stack. These products are designed to ingest, store, and analyze data from a variety of sources and formats, facilitating real-time search, analytics, and visualization of diverse types of data. Elastic’s offerings are in high demand across several industry sectors for applications ranging from search, logging, and metrics to security and performance monitoring, showcasing the company's versatility and innovation in data processing and analytics solutions.
A highly scalable, real-time search and analytics engine, Elasticsearch is at the core of the Elastic Stack. It supports a wide array of data types, including textual, numerical, geospatial, structured, and unstructured data, making it a versatile option for managing and analyzing vast datasets.
Kibana serves as the visual interface for the Elastic Stack, offering users tools for managing, configuring, and visualizing the data processed by Elasticsearch. Its capabilities enable businesses to easily create and share dynamic dashboards that highlight insights from their data.
This component integrates host protection and central management services, streamlining the deployment and management of the Elastic Stack across an organization’s infrastructure. Elastic Agent simplifies the gathering and analysis of data from various endpoints.
Beats are lightweight, single-purpose data shippers designed to send data from edge machines and endpoints to Elasticsearch or Logstash. Each Beat is tailored to a specific type of data, enabling efficient data ingestion from diverse sources.
As a dynamic data collection pipeline, Logstash facilitates the ingestion of data into Elasticsearch or other storage systems from multiple sources at once. It enhances the Elastic Stack's ability to process and analyze data in real time.
Building on the Elastic Stack, the company offers tailored software solutions for a variety of use cases, including but not limited to search applications, workplace search, logging, metrics, application performance monitoring, synthetic monitoring, security information and event management (SIEM), endpoint security, extended detection and response, and cloud security. These specialized solutions enable organizations to address their specific data analysis and security needs efficiently and effectively.