US equity markets steadied this past week while bond markets rallied as investors parsed a surprisingly solid slate of economic data and a decent start to corporate earnings season. Early week gains were pared following comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding the inflationary impact of tariffs and the reluctance of the Fed to step in to support markets. The hawkish comments sparked a series of blistering critiques by President Trump, accusing the Fed Chair of "playing politics" and posting that his "termination cannot come fast enough."
The recent crash in AGG and other bonds and a declining US dollar suggest a significant repricing for debt monetization risk. Foreign selling of US Treasuries, particularly by countries like China, is potentially driving this shift, indicating a potential long-term collapse of the US dollar recycling system. The correlation shifts between AGG, the US dollar, and equities highlight foreign activity's critical role in the bond market's changes, ending AGG's historically inverse correlation to stocks.
Market volatility remains pronounced as of midday trading on Friday as investors digest rapidly shifting global trade dynamics. Advisors and investors looking to potentially harness volatility for income would do well to consider the NEOS options-based ETF suite this year.
Trump tariffs likely to disrupt trade, hit employment, and prompt the Fed to cut interest rates, benefiting bonds over equities in the short to medium term. iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF offers diversified exposure to US investment grade bonds, with low expense ratio and strong risk-adjusted returns. AGG's holdings include US Treasuries, Mortgage Backed Securities, and corporate credit, making it a stable choice amidst market volatility.
Ahead of the April 2nd tariff unveiling, US equity markets were under renewed pressure this week on downbeat data showing a further dip in consumer confidence and hotter-than-expected PCE inflation. As a turbulent first quarter wraps up, the updated GDPNow - the Atlanta Fed's closely watched GDP tracking model - forecasts growth of -2.8% overall and -0.5% on a "gold-adjusted basis." Posting weekly declines for the seventh time in the past nine weeks, the S&P 500 finished lower by 1.5% - extending its drawdown to 9.3% from its record-highs.
On this week's episode of ETF Prime, host Nate Geraci and VettaFi Investment Strategist Cinthia Murphy explore five ETF categories potentially benefiting from recent market turmoil. Later, Geraci welcomes industry veteran Tom Lydon to discuss the current ETF landscape.
U.S. fixed income ETFs garnered strong flows in February, uncovering insights into investor behavior and risk appetite in 2025. The $1.6 trillion U.S. fixed income ETF segment took in $31 billion in net flows in February, bringing year-to-date flows to $59 billion as of the end of the month.
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