Ares Capital delivered a strong quarter with solid investment activity, NAV growth, and robust liquidity, maintaining its dividend for now. Despite ARCC's strengths, tight dividend coverage and declining net investment income keep the dividend at risk of a cut, possibly in early 2026. The company's size, scale, investment-grade ratings, and spillover income provide cushions, but economic weakness and rate cuts could pressure earnings.
Credit spreads are flashing complacency as too much capital chases too few deals. This creates a tricky situation for the market. Personally, I see tight spreads not as safety but as distortion, as this has become an unusual market for private lenders. Ares Capital and Hercules Capital show how strong underwriting and balance sheet discipline still create value.
BDCs have been clearly out of favor this year. Yet, there are some clear pockets of opportunity, which have started to showcase a nice momentum - just as I outlined in my recent BDC strategic piece. It does not mean, however, that all deep-discount BDCs will recover.
Ares Capital is seeing pressure on its net investment income, but saw a sequential improvement in its non-accrual percentage in Q3. ARCC's dividend coverage ratio in Q3 was 1.0X, which means the investment firm could potentially under-earn its dividend in the short term. The company's non-accrual ratio improved 0.2 PP Q/Q to 0.8%, based off of fair value.
Ares Capital (ARCC) just reported Q3 results. I look at what these results mean for ARCC and the broader BDC sector. I also share my updated view on ARCC stock.
ARCC's third-quarter earnings match estimates as higher investment income offset a rise in expenses and a dip in profit.
Investors often turn to recommendations made by Wall Street analysts before making a Buy, Sell, or Hold decision about a stock. While media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm employed (or sell-side) analysts often affect a stock's price, do they really matter?
Ares Capital (NASDAQ:ARCC ) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 28, 2025 12:00 PM EDT Company Participants John Stilmar - Partner & Co-Head of Public Markets Investor Relations Kort Schnabel - CEO, Partner & Co-Head of U.S. Direct Lending Scott Lem - CFO & Treasurer James Miller - President Conference Call Participants Finian O'Shea - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division John Hecht - Jefferies LLC, Research Division Arren Cyganovich - Truist Securities, Inc., Research Division Melissa Wedel - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division Casey Alexander - Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC, Research Division Douglas Harter - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Robert Dodd - Raymond James Ltd., Research Division Paul Johnson - Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods, Inc., Research Division Kenneth Lee - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division Sean-Paul Adams - B.
There's no better way to generate passive income than dividend stocks. If a stock has a dividend yield higher than the common benchmark, such as the S&P 500, it could be a worthwhile investment.
Although the revenue and EPS for Ares Capital (ARCC) give a sense of how its business performed in the quarter ended September 2025, it might be worth considering how some key metrics compare with Wall Street estimates and the year-ago numbers.
Ares Capital is the sector's benchmark BDC, currently trading near NAV with a strong credit rating and historical returns. By constructing a leveraged portfolio of high-yield MREIT baby bonds, I demonstrate a potential for higher ROE than ARCC's projected 9%. Both BDC loans and MREIT bonds carry high credit risk, but exchange-traded baby bonds offer daily liquidity and better risk management.
Ares Capital is set to report Q3 results, with both revenues and earnings projected to fall amid rising costs and muted income growth.