BBAI eyes 2026 growth as national security AI demand surges, backed by a key acquisition and record liquidity.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BBAI has enjoyed a sharp rebound over the past six months, rising nearly 36% and outperforming major benchmarks, including the S&P 500, the Zacks Computer and Technology sector and even the Zacks Computers – IT Services industry. With the stock trading around $5.79 (as of Dec. 2) and remaining well above its 200-day moving average, investors are weighing whether the rally still has room to run or if the upside is starting to plateau.
BigBear.ai's stock has surged 35% year to date in 2025. The acquisition of AskSage, a generative AI platform, will bring high-margin recurring revenue to BigBear.ai.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BBAI has been facing margin pressures since the start of 2025. The gross margin contracted 240 basis points (bps) to 22.8% year over year and the adjusted EBITDA margin was at a negative of 24.8% (compared with negative 3.8% a year ago) in the first nine months of 2025.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BBAI has come under heavy pressure over the past month, with shares plunging 17.5% and underperforming the broader technology landscape. The Zacks Computers – IT Services industry fell 6.7% over the same period, while the Zacks Computer and Technology sector and the S&P 500 declined only 1.7% and 1.9%, respectively.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BBAI operates at the crossroads of national security, border technology, and applied AI—segments where funding flows can be uneven but, when secured, have the potential to meaningfully accelerate growth. After a volatile first half, the stock has reset from its early-year peaks, leaving valuation multiples below prior highs and inviting a fresh look for investors weighing risk against optionality.
BigBear.ai NYSE: BBAI remains a speculative investment, as the 20% share price spike following the Q3 release is unsustainable. Each bit of good news within the report is offset by a negative that points to the same old story.
BBAI's Q3 earnings miss estimates, but a revenue beat and an Ask Sage acquisition lift shares on defense AI optimism.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. ( BBAI ) Q3 2025 Earnings Call November 10, 2025 4:30 PM EST Company Participants Sean Ricker - CFO & Principal Accounting Officer Kevin McAleenan - CEO & Director Presentation Operator Greetings, and welcome to BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
BigBear.ai (BBAI) operates in the promising AI defense sector but current financials do not justify its $2.5B+ market cap (at least yet). Q3 earnings beat estimates, and the Ask Sage acquisition adds ARR potential, yet revenue remains low and margins are compressed. BBAI's valuation is still a little speculative; future growth hinges on securing large, multi-year government contracts and improving operational leverage.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) came out with a quarterly loss of $0.07 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.06. This compares to a loss of $0.05 per share a year ago.
BigBear.ai's business is gradually stabilizing as it gains more government contracts. Pony AI could struggle to scale up its capital-intensive robotaxi business.