2026 BDC Outlook: Why I'm Steering Clear Of Main Street Capital
Main Street Capital is highly reliable BDC but faces short-term headwinds from likely Fed rate cuts. MAIN trade at premium Price/NAV multiples, reflecting quality but increasing downside risk if spreads compress. The BDC sector may face challenges in the short term, while growth awaits it in the medium term.
Main Street Capital: A Best In Class BDC For Reliable Income And Long-Term NAV Growth
Main Street Capital (MAIN) is a best-in-class BDC, leveraging an internally managed model for superior cost efficiency, consistent NAV growth, and resilient dividends. MAIN's multi-pronged strategy (income, NAV accretion, and equity gains) drives reliable monthly dividends and supplemental payouts, with 13 consecutive quarters of record NAV per share. Balance sheet strength is evident: conservative 0.62x leverage, $1.56bn liquidity, and 17% ROE, supporting continued portfolio growth and income stability even in volatile markets.
Chicago Atlantic BDC: Q3 Earnings Indicates Growth Potential (Rating Upgrade)
Chicago Atlantic BDC (LIEN) is upgraded to Buy, driven by strong Q3 earnings, resilient NAV growth, and an attractive 19.5% discount to NAV. LIEN's portfolio, focused on senior secured floating rate debt and expanding beyond cannabis, supports a robust 12.7% dividend yield with 124% coverage. Management's active investment pace and sector diversification position LIEN to capitalize on cannabis industry growth and mitigate rate environment risks.
These Big BDC Yields Look Tempting But Come With Even Bigger Risks
The bankruptcy of auto-parts supplier First Brands has hit a corner of the market known for high dividends. Does that make these assets bargains?
Trinity Capital: Why I Put 25% Of My Portfolio Into This BDC
Trinity Capital stands out as an internally managed BDC with strong management-shareholder alignment and a robust track record in growth-stage lending. TRIN consistently covers its $0.51 quarterly dividend with GAAP NII, maintaining a positive spread and indicating high dividend safety through 2026. I assign a strong buy rating at $13.31 (1.0x BV) and a fair value target of $15.97 (1.2x BV), reflecting TRIN's value versus peers.
Belden Inc. (BDC) Presents at Goldman Sachs Industrials and Materials Conference 2025 Transcript
Belden Inc. (BDC) Presents at Goldman Sachs Industrials and Materials Conference 2025 Transcript
Why I'm Parking 45% Of My BDC Capital In These 2 Names
There is certainly no shortage of arguments why not to invest in BDCs. The sector median BDC trades at a 21% discount to NAV. For me, this provides an opportunity to scoop up unfairly punished gems.
Crescent Capital BDC: Attractive BDC, But More Downside Could Be Likely
Crescent Capital BDC faces macro uncertainty and falling interest rates, making the BDC sector risky despite attractive income yields. CCAP trades at a discount to NAV, but I see limited upside and a higher risk of further downside due to expected lower base rates. Recent earnings show sequential declines in total and net investment income, increased non-accruals, and a drop in NAV, signaling economic weakness for CCAP.
Goldman Sachs BDC: Big Discount And High Yield Isn't The Bargain You Think
Goldman Sachs BDC offers a high-yield and large discount, but deteriorating financials make the stock risky despite recent investment activity. GSBD's net investment income and NAV continue to decline year-over-year, underperforming peers like ARCC and HTGC, signaling caution for value hunters. While the base dividend appears safe for now, ongoing rate cuts and economic headwinds could pressure future payouts and overall performance.
Barings BDC: Q3 Earnings Show Strong Dividend Coverage
Barings BDC remains a resilient choice in the BDC sector, offering a high 11.6% dividend yield and strong distribution coverage. BBDC's portfolio is well-diversified, focused on senior secured first lien debt, and maintains low non-accruals compared to peers, supporting income stability. Despite healthy fundamentals, BBDC faces persistent NAV declines and limited new investment activity, constraining upside potential in a high-rate environment.
Crescent Capital BDC: 13% Yield And 31% Discount Make It A Buy
Crescent Capital BDC offers a compelling 12.6% regular dividend yield and trades at a 31% discount to book value. CCAP maintains a conservatively managed, diversified portfolio with strong dividend coverage and an improving non-accrual rate. The BDC's focus on sponsor-backed companies, solid balance sheet, and potential for increased non-interest income support its investment case.
Don't Bury BDC Dividends Just Yet
The Fed's dovishness has been the key driver for the BDC sell-off. The idea is that lower interest rates should lead to lower dividends (i.e., BDCs cutting their dividend across the board). While it is a process that takes time, the current data show that many BDCs are well-positioned to safeguard their existing dividends.
