We take a look at the action in business development companies through the second week of May and highlight some of the key themes we are watching. The BDC sector remained flat on the week, with CGBD leading the decline. The median BDC valuation is at a 12% discount, making the sector attractive for new allocations. Net unrealized depreciation is a key theme this earnings season, driven by wider public credit spreads, leading to a median NAV drop of around 1% in Q1.
Main Street Capital remains a top-quality BDC with solid fundamentals, strong management, and consistent income generation, as evidenced by robust Q1 earnings. Despite a recent 11.5% price decline, MAIN still trades at a 68.5% premium to NAV, well above its historical average. Macro risks and sector-wide premium valuations make me hesitant to add to my MAIN position or increase BDC exposure right now.
Golub Capital BDC delivered a solid quarter with a 2% total NAV return, trading at an 11% dividend yield and a 6% discount to NAV. The company's portfolio is well-diversified with 368 positions, primarily in floating-rate first-lien loans, focusing on the software and healthcare sectors. Despite a slight NAV decline and net realized losses, GBDC's low-cost fee structure and resilient portfolio have driven strong performance, beating the median BDC by 2.5%.
Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. (LIEN) came out with a quarterly loss of $0.34 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.34. This compares to loss of $0.01 per share a year ago.
Ares Capital missed EPS expectations for Q1, but results were nonetheless very robust; ARCC grew its portfolio, and maintained high balance sheet quality, with a low non-accrual percentage. I rated Ares Capital a hold previously, due to its high-yield and high valuation multiplier. Ares Capital's diversified portfolio and first lien strategy, combined with 326% Y/Y growth in net commitments, highlight its growth potential.
We take a look at the action in business development companies through the first week of May and highlight some of the key themes we are watching. BDCs fell around 1.5% this week due to a couple of weak Q1 reports, with the sector still below pre-Liberation Day levels. Despite recent dips, historically resilient BDCs are showing strong ROE figures, suggesting selective opportunities for patient investors.
Ares Capital delivered a solid 2.1% total NAV return in Q1, trading at a 9.4% dividend yield and a 3% premium to book. Core net investment income dropped to $0.50, with GAAP NII steady at $0.54; dividend coverage fell to 104%, but the dividend remains stable. Portfolio quality remains stable with non-accruals at 0.9% and a diversified portfolio; leverage is low but may rise as lending opportunities increase.
The Fed's expected rate cuts will make companies trading at a discount to NAV with high yields, like OBDC, more attractive. OBDC's merger with OBDE enhances its portfolio, operational savings, and NII, positioning it for strong future performance despite recent share declines. OBDC's substantial NII and trading at a -9.45% discount to NAV offer a compelling investment opportunity with a 12.55% dividend yield.
Trump's tariffs have escalated into a U.S.-China trade war, creating a riskier environment for BDCs, likely impacting their portfolio performance. TSLX's strong portfolio, focused on first-lien debt and diversified investments, positions it well to handle economic downturns and non-accruals. TSLX's internal performance ratings are outstanding, with 94.5% of the portfolio raising no concerns and non-accruals at a manageable 1.2%.
CHICAGO ATL BDC (LIEN) possesses the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
Investors need to pay close attention to Belden (BDC) stock based on the movements in the options market lately.
GBDC's valuation dropped due to Trump's tariffs, making it a potentially attractive investment despite a riskier economic environment. GBDC's high first-lien debt exposure and manageable non-accruals make it a quality BDC, though not as strong as BXSL or MSDL. Lower interest rates could benefit BDCs by improving liquidity and reducing non-accrual risks, contrary to popular belief.