YieldMax COIN Option Income Strategy ETF (CONY) offers superior total return potential versus ULTY due to heightened bitcoin volatility and higher implied volatility in COIN. I maintain a cautious stance on both funds, but see CONY as offering a more balanced return/risk profile with their current volatility regimes. I am seeing a divergence between equity volatility and bitcoin volatility.
YieldMax COIN Option Income Strategy ETF (CONY) remains a hold due to high risk, persistent share price erosion, and unsustainable distributions. CONY's strategy leverages synthetic options on Coinbase (COIN), generating high yields but capping upside and amplifying volatility exposure tied to Bitcoin. Total return since inception is positive for early entrants, but recent investors face a 34.5% total loss over twelve months despite a 126.4% yield.
CONY is a synthetic covered call ETF focused on generating income by writing calls on Coinbase (COIN), mirroring COIN's volatility and downside. COIN's recent struggles and volatility have led to NAV erosion and reduced distributions for CONY, but long-term growth potential remains if crypto sentiment rebounds. Macro headwinds and crypto market weakness are temporary; COIN is well-positioned for future adoption, making CONY attractive for income seekers once stability returns.
Bitcoin's long-term bullish outlook supports leveraged income ETFs like Roundhill COIN WeeklyPay ETF over covered-call strategies such as YieldMax COIN Option Income Strategy ETF. COIW benefits from active leverage management, balancing risk and upside capture better than CONY. CONY underperforms in flat or volatile markets, offering limited drawdown protection and weak upside participation.
The YieldMax COIN Option Income Strategy ETF aims to provide high income by selling call options on Coinbase stock. COIN is expanding into financial services and stablecoins, which could drive long-term growth, but crypto volatility remains a key risk. CONY's strategy of covered calls has capped upside, and recent performance lagged COIN, raising concerns about management's strategy execution.
CONY ETF delivered impressive total returns in the past, largely driven by high option premiums during periods of extreme COIN volatility. COIN stock volatility has recently declined and is likely to remain muted due to regulatory clarity and market maturation. As such, I expect CONY's future income potential to decline and its past performance unlikely to sustain.
Coinbase's recent momentum, Deribit acquisition, and regulatory clarity have strengthened its outlook, supporting a bullish-to-cautiously-bullish stance on the stock. CONY's option income strategy consistently underperforms in flat or rallying markets, offering limited downside protection and capping upside potential. Tactically, CONY suits investors seeking cautious exposure to Coinbase or opportunistic short-term income, but direct COIN ownership offers higher potential returns.
The YieldMax options strategy is based on CONY's performance being heavily tied to Coinbase. In this way, income seekers can potentially benefit from mouthwatering dividend yields. While there are risks in case Coinbase becomes volatile or spikes too fast, this thesis aims to identify an opportunity made possible by Stablecoins.
I maintain a hold rating on CONY due to Coinbase and Bitcoin trading near all-time highs, increasing risk of a pullback. CONY offers massive distributions (currently ~73% yield), but suffers from significant price decay and capped upside potential. The fund's synthetic option strategy generates income but exposes investors to greater downside risk and underperforms COIN over time.
Passive income seekers and cryptocurrency enthusiasts may cheer the CONY ETF's eyebrow-raising yield.
CONY offers a high yield via monthly distributions, but its price has declined, leading to underperformance versus holding COIN directly. The ETF's distributions are classified as return of capital, offering tax deferral benefits until the fund is sold, which can appeal to long-term investors. Risks include declining distributions, potential for the fund price to approach zero, and uncertainty about sustaining high yields in the future.
CONY's high yield is driven by a covered-call strategy on Coinbase, but the share price has declined over 60% since inception. Current market conditions—low implied volatility and unfavorable Bitcoin seasonality—make covered-call selling less attractive for CONY. I'm bullish on Bitcoin long-term due to ETF inflows, institutional adoption, and reduced exchange supply, but June seasonality tempers my enthusiasm.