Steel is certainly making many investors fearful due to geopolitical tensions and tariff-fears. Danieli offers an interesting way to gain exposure to a key material of today's world, without being directly affected by commodity price fluctuations. Danieli's leadership position in steel-making plants positions the company to benefit from increased infrastructure spending.
Danieli's unique position in the US market, with no local competitors, and potential benefits from reindustrialization policies make it a compelling investment despite macro concerns. The company's plantmaking segment shows robust profitability and growth, driven by advanced, energy-efficient steel plant solutions, even as the steelmaking segment faces macroeconomic pressures. The stock's current low valuation, combined with potential earnings catalysts and a possible capital structure simplification, presents an attractive entry point for investors.
Danieli's savings shares offer potential advantages over ordinary shares, especially with a possible conversion event that could simplify due diligence and improve index weighting. Despite a decline in steelmaking profits, Danieli's plant-making business remains strong, supported by a solid backlog and potential new signings. The extended modernization plan prevents any reduction in the net cash balance, but the plant-making business is expected to perform well even under market pressure.
Danieli has retraced to November 2023 levels before its climb. We think that while commodity risks are justifiably pressuring prices, a rise could happen again due to low valuation, CAPEX plans, and quirks around take-privates in the Italian markets. Valuations remain low, and although there may be trading risks around releases coming next month, the value is great here, and secular growth is plausible in plant-making.