AI strength, solid earnings, and upbeat 2026 forecasts fuel momentum plays. These five ETFs -- GDXJ, SLV, KBE, MDYV & IWM -- may still have room to run.
Silver and gold have delivered extraordinary momentum in 2025, driven by soaring spot prices and supportive monetary signals, including a near-90% implied probability of a December 10 rate cut. While miner ETFs can outperform their underlying metals during strong bull cycles, they also carry amplified downside risk, which is greater now as silver and gold trade near all-time highs. Year-to-date, my five silver and gold ETFs are up an average of 153% and offer an average five-year dividend growth rate of nearly 26%.
Gold remains in a strong long-term bullish trend, with junior gold miners and related ETFs delivering leveraged upside performance in 2025. GDXJ, JNUG, and GDXU have all significantly outperformed gold futures recently, with GDXU providing the highest short-term returns. GDXJ is unleveraged but carries inherent risk; JNUG and GDXU offer explicit leverage and require disciplined risk management due to time decay and volatility.
After a decade-long gold bull market, sentiment is euphoric, and GDXJ is now a speculation with a poor risk-reward profile. GDXJ's top holdings are cyclical mining companies with erratic cash flows, heavy share dilution, and trade at premium valuations. Despite gold's rise, GDXJ remains below its 2011 highs due to massive shareholder dilution and weak fundamentals in its holdings.
GDXJ offers diversified exposure to mid-cap and smaller gold miners, outperforming gold and broader markets in 2025 with strong returns. Gold miners are benefiting from record-high gold prices, robust free cash flow, and shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks. Despite strong fundamentals, GDXJ has seen significant investment outflows, suggesting the bull market is still early and not euphoric.
Rallies, then sharp pullbacks seem to be the norm for the stock market these days.
Gold miners are poised for earnings growth in 2025 due to lower energy costs and rising gold prices, creating a favorable setup. VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF offers exposure to smaller, even exploration-stage companies with higher upside potential, differing from GDX and SGDM in holdings and management. The macroeconomic shift away from the dollar and US treasuries supports sustained gold demand, even amid potential recession risks.
Gold shines as a compelling investment amid looming uncertainty.
Owning gold miners sidesteps the risk of individual miner stocks and offers leveraged exposure to gold, especially beneficial during market turbulence and gold bull runs. Diversifying a portfolio heavy on the S&P or Nasdaq with gold miners can capture upside potential, as the fortunes of the miners have diverged from the overall market. Earnings growth for the S&P is declining, while gold miners show contrasting, more favorable earnings, making them a strategic addition to portfolios.
Here are a few ETFs that have survived the recent turmoil and gained in double digits over the past month.
Gold mining stocks, particularly the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), have outperformed gold itself, with GDXJ up 67% in the past year. GDXJ's modest valuation, strong technical trends, and bullish seasonal patterns make it a compelling buy despite its high risk and volatility. The ETF's portfolio consists of small-cap gold miners with high growth potential, and its assets under management have grown to $5 billion.
For investors seeking momentum, VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF GDXJ is probably on the radar. The fund just hit a 52-week high and is up about 80% from its 52-week low price of $31.00/share.