Medtronic (MDT) has an impressive earnings surprise history and currently possesses the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely beat in its next quarterly report.
Medtronic (NYSE:MDT), which is renowned for inventing the world's first battery-operated implantable pacemaker, has over time earned respect as a worldwide leader in medical technology and has created substantial value for its shareholders. Although the company's advancements have influenced contemporary healthcare, its stock presents a more cautious narrative today.
Medtronic's decade-long underperformance stems from stagnant revenue growth, declining margins, and inconsistent returns on invested capital, despite a solid dividend history. The Diabetes segment spin-off aims to refocus Medtronic on higher-margin, growth areas, potentially improving financial metrics over time. Dividend growth has slowed significantly, with recent increases barely above 1%, reflecting rising payout ratios and limited earnings growth.
Medtronic (MDT) closed the most recent trading day at $87.17, moving +1.34% from the previous trading session.
Initiate Medtronic with Strong Buy, $161 PT, citing a structural margin inflection from Diabetes spin-off and robust innovation pipeline (120+ approvals). Street underestimates FY27 margin/EPS upside from Diabetes separation and operating leverage in Cardiac & Structural Heart—key drivers for re-rating. Valuation at 26x FY27E EPS is conservative versus peers; scenario analysis shows risk skewed to the upside, as margin catalysts execute.
I reiterate my buy rating on Medtronic, driven by solid fundamentals and an attractive valuation, despite less upside versus prior estimates. Medtronic continues to deliver steady revenue growth, robust free cash flow, and a 48-year dividend growth streak, even as sector sentiment weakens. Key risks include competitive pressures, margin threats in Diabetes and CAS, and macro headwinds like tariffs, requiring prudent management execution.
Medtronic (MDT) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock?
Medtronic remains a dependable dividend aristocrat, but its long-term total shareholder returns lag significantly behind peers like Johnson & Johnson and Stryker. Despite a solid 2025 performance, the stock's recent gains stem from a low base, and it still trades well below its 2021 highs. Earnings growth is steady but uninspiring, with margin pressure and tariff risks highlighting operational challenges versus higher-quality competitors.
Deal OverviewOn May 21, 2025, Medtronic plc (NYSE: MDT; $87.44, Market Capitalization: $112.1 billion), a global leader in medical technology, announced its intent to spin off its Diabetes business into a standalone entity (New Diabetes Company). This strategic move is designed to streamline Medtronic's portfolio, sharpen its focus on high-margin growth areas, and unlock shareholder value.
The market continues to chase growth while ignoring once beloved income stocks. Verizon offers a compelling 6.3% dividend yield, robust free cash flow, and trades well below its historical valuation, making it attractive for conservative income investors. Medtronic provides a reliable 3.5% yield, a strong balance sheet, and growth catalysts in cardiac solutions, surgical robotics, and a value-enhancing diabetes spin-off.
Medtronic plc (NYSE:MDT ) Bernstein's 41st Strategic Decisions Conference Call May 29, 2025 11:00 AM ET Company Participants Geoff Martha - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Thierry Pieton - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Lee Hambright - Bernstein Lee Hambright All right. Very good.
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