In four of the past five years, Bitcoin (BTC -0.41%) has been the top-performing asset in the world, and it hasn't even been close. In 2020, 2023, and 2024, Bitcoin delivered triple-digit returns to investors.
Strategy is breaking out after a 40% drop from its ATH. Bitcoin's bullish trend, confirmed by technical analysis, supports the investment thesis for MSTR, which has significant Bitcoin holdings. MSTR's chart shows a strong breakout, with the potential to reach $700 if Bitcoin hits $120k.
The early Thursday session is seeing a bit of give back in three major crypto stocks. At this point, we are waiting to see if the Bitcoin market can continue to see strength, and if it translates in the stock market as well.
MSTU, aiming for 2x MSTR's daily return, is risky due to MSTR's 126% premium and volatility decay impacting returns. MSTR's premium, driven by Bitcoin exposure, is unsustainable with current stock issuance and unclear correlation with Bitcoin's future performance. MSTR's financing strategy, once effective, now relies on high-dividend preferred stock, signaling challenges in leveraging common stock and debt.
The three crypto related stocks in this analysis all share a bit of softness ahead of the bell on Thursday, as crypto has given back a bit of the gains after the massive “risk on rally” due to Trump announcing a pause on tariffs for 90 days.
I have mixed feelings about non-productive, speculative assets like Bitcoin and have never given BTC itself a buy rating. These feelings also extend to MicroStrategy (now "Strategy"), which leverages debt to buy Bitcoin, emerging as a bullish, "leveraged" bet on BTC. The Defiance Daily Target 2x Long MSTR ETF offers even further leverage on MSTR, and therefore BTC. However, it is a very poor investment.
The stock market is dealing with crazy whiplash right now, with the S&P 500 rallying more than 8% then dropping 4% all in the span of an hour.
Strategy's Series A 10% Preferred Equity offers a 10% cumulative coupon, with punitive rates for deferred payments, making it a fixed income instrument. STRF is less volatile than common shares, ideal for income-oriented investors who believe in Strategy's longevity and bitcoin's potential. Major risks include bitcoin price volatility and interest rate increases, which could significantly impact STRF's value.
Shares of Strategy (MSTR -8.84%), formerly known as MicroStrategy, fell on Thursday. The company's stock lost 8.8% as of market close and was down as much as 12.7% earlier in the day.
MicroStrategy Inc.'s aggressive plan to sell equity and debt securities so it can buy bitcoin may have been played out, to the point that there is now one Wall Street analyst who says investors should sell the stock.
MicroStrategy has transformed into a leveraged Bitcoin proxy, offering investors amplified exposure to Bitcoin's price movements through its massive Bitcoin holdings and strategic financial engineering. The company's strategy benefits from rising institutional acceptance of Bitcoin, creating a positive feedback loop that could further drive up Bitcoin's price and validate MicroStrategy's model. Despite its potential for outsized gains, MicroStrategy's heavy reliance on Bitcoin's appreciation and its leveraged position make it an incredibly risky investment.
Strategy (MSTR -10.60%), the tech company formerly known as MicroStrategy, currently has a market cap of $75 billion. It was valued at just $3 billion two years ago.