Persimmon is a potential turnaround investment, trading near its 5-year low, with a focus on affordable housing and first-time buyers. The investment thesis hinges on expected BOE rate cuts in 2025, boosting mortgage demand and benefiting Persimmon. Labour Party's housing policy aims to build 1.5 million new houses, providing a significant tailwind for Persimmon.
Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) has been rated as its Top Pick among UK housebuilders by US broker Jefferies. On its calculations, the share price currently assumes no improvement to its return on equity from 2024.
Deutsche Bank has upgraded Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) from 'hold' to 'buy', citing emerging valuation opportunities after a 40% decline in the housebuilder's share price since mid-October. The bank's analysts left their target unchanged at 1,419p - representing a 23% premium to the current share price of 1,149p (up 3% on the day).
Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) has said full-year profit should meet the high end of market expectations after outdoing anticipations around completions and enjoying higher selling prices in 2024. Underlying operating pre-tax profit is expected to sit at the upper end of the £349 million to £390 million range, the FTSE 100-listed housebuilder updated on Tuesday.
Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) was one of the best of the risers as UBS upgraded to 'Buy' ahead of a trading update next week. Housebuilder shares have been under pressure recently due to worries about the impact of the rise in gilt yields on mortgage costs with Persimmon shedding 35% of its value since November.
UK housebuilders' stock market valuations are lower now than at the start of the year, though trading conditions are "more robust", analysts at broker Jefferies reckon. They noted that shares are on average now trading below the net tangible asset value (P/NTAV) were back to below pre-election levels, even though earnings per share forecasts are more than 10% higher.
Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) comments about rising costs yesterday have not persuaded US bank Jefferies to change any of its estimates but it did trim its price target to ‘derisk its margin forecast for 2025'. National Insurance hikes have an impact on the housebuilder's workforce and lower-margin mix of deliveries, but Jefferies says it is happy to be ahead of forecasts on both completions and margin for the next few years.
Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) said it continues to see a steady recovery in housing demand with orders up 17% but costs are rising again with the Budget to add to the problem. “We are seeking to mitigate the impact of these cost increases through robust commercial controls and other management actions,” it said.
A clutch of the UK's top housebuilders step up next week in a big week for UK PLC generally. Vistry, Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon all release updates and with housebuilding one of the key planks of this government's industrial strategy, how they viewed the Budget will be worth noting.
Here is how Persimmon Plc (PSMMY) and RPM International (RPM) have performed compared to their sector so far this year.
Housebuilder Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) delivered first-half results that would have impressed the new Labour government and investors, with accelerating numbers of new housing completions and profits ahead of forecasts. Management commented that consumer confidence continues to improve with a strong pick up in enquiries and visitor levels since the general election in early July.
Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) reported flat profit for the first half of the year and said it was encouraged by looser planning laws under the new Labour government. The FTSE 100 housebuilder completed 4,445 new home sales in the first six months of 2024, up 5% on the year before, turning around from a fall of 10% in the first quarter.