The stock market was able to rally last week despite the larger-than-expected 0.50% rate cut by the FOMC. As is often the case the averages gyrated after Fed Chair Powell's press conference and higher open the Dow Industrials closed down 293 points.
The S&P 500 tracker fund SPY has seen a healthy rise in 2024 so far, after already seeing a double-digit increase in 2023 and even has a slight lead over QQQ. Sustained above trend growth in the US economy, softening inflation rates and the start of the rate cut cycle go in its favour. From a top-down perspective, all its biggest ten holdings have performed well this year, led by NVIDIA along with Meta, Broadcom and Eli Lilly.
Peak optimism in stock markets often signals an impending decline, as seen with U.S. households' equity allocation hitting a record 34.7%. Professional and retail investors' extreme enthusiasm, with low cash reserves and high options activity, indicates a potential market downturn.
The S&P 500 index and its associated exchange-traded funds (ETF) like the SPY, VOO, and IVV, surged to a record high on Thursday as investors cheered the Federal Reserve boost. The blue-chip index soared to a high of $5,722, a 20% increase from where it started the year.
SPY: Equity And Bond Markets Flash Conflicting Signals On Recession Risk
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I maintain a “Hold” rating for the S&P 500, skeptical of the market's bullish expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut. The Energy CPI component deflation contrasts with rising rent and core services costs, complicating the inflation outlook and justifying a cautious Fed approach.
The stock market normally doesn't do well in September -- at least, historically. If stock prices fall, however, that could make this an opportune time to start buying.
After two negative expectation breakers in a month, it was nice to see the market break expectations the other way.
The reading of August CPI data led the market to sell off because it was as expected. As much hope as there was for aggressive interest rate cuts this year, the FOMC would unlikely follow through on them because underlying economic data remains solid, and deep in the market's heart, it knows it to be true.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust tracks the S&P 500 index. You probably will make money with the S&P 500 over time.
September has so far lived up to its reputation as the worst month for stocks.