Block stock has continued on its remarkable recovery after suffering a hammering previously. Management's lowered 2025 outlook sets a lower bar, improving the chances of a second half outperformance. The resilient economy has also tempered the worst outcomes that were much feared early in April/May.
The bulls quietly price in a potential FQ2'25 double beat performance, as observed in XYZ's robust stock price recovery, thanks to the management's promising commentaries in the May 2025 conference. This is significantly aided by the potential passing of the long-awaited cryptocurrency bill, with Bitcoins likely to be publicly adopted as an alternative to fiat currency. This development underscores XYZ's strategic launch of Bitcoin payments on Square from 2026 onwards, allowing them to monetize their Bitcoin horde on balance sheet.
HRB gains 6.2% YTD on strong earnings momentum, rising estimates, and initiatives backing gig workers and entrepreneurs.
XOM and QatarEnergy strike another gas find in Cyprus' Block 10, deepening their foothold in the Eastern Med region.
H&R Block offers a stable, essential service with steady revenue, strong margins, and a shareholder-friendly capital return policy, trading at just 11x earnings. We see a fair value of $70 per share, implying a 30% total return potential from current levels, with a favorable 2:1 reward/risk ratio. Risks include lower-than-expected earnings, competition, tax code simplification, and management missteps, but overall risk remains moderate.
TTE boosts its Suriname offshore footprint with a 25% stake in Block 53, expanding low-cost GranMorgu development potential.
CRBG strikes $2.8 billion reinsurance deal to shed $51 billion variable annuity block within its Individual Retirement unit, unlocking around $2.1 billion in after-tax proceeds likely to be utilized for buybacks and organic growth initiatives.
XOM lifts Cepu Block output to 180,000 bpd, reinforcing its role in boosting Indonesia's oil production goals.
EQNR secures 100% of Brazil's S-M-1617 block near existing assets, reinforcing its deepwater and renewables push.
Block is uniquely positioned with an integrated consumer and merchant platform few competitors can match. Despite recent headwinds, the company remains profitable with strong margins and a healthy balance sheet. The expansion of Cash App Borrow and Afterpay unlocks new monetization channels within their existing user base.
Block's valuation is deeply discounted, pricing in macro and competitive headwinds, creating a contrarian buy opportunity for patient investors. Despite weak user growth and competition, XYZ's core businesses show resilience, with steady per-user engagement and strong brand stickiness in SMBs. Operating margins are improving, and the balance sheet is healthy, despite high stock-based compensation and Bitcoin-driven revenue volatility.
XYZ remains a top pick due to its net cash balance sheet, GAAP profitability, and aggressive share repurchases despite recent growth concerns. Management's conservative guidance and increased focus on lending have pressured sentiment. Recent updates show improving Cash App trends and innovation efforts, suggesting potential for growth acceleration in the coming quarters.