Stephen Hemsley returned to the top job last month after the healthcare giant reported its first earnings miss since 2008.
UnitedHealth added 800,000 Medicare Advantage members in Q1 FY 2025, despite rising utilization and CMS model disruption in the segment. Optum Health is on track to serve 5.4 million value-based care patients in FY 2025, driving higher-margin, preventive-focused revenue growth. Optum contributes ~43% of UnitedHealth's operating income, with Optum Rx achieving 14% topline growth and a $140B annual revenue run-rate.
Shares of UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:UNH) are struggling in 2025, down 39.1% year-to-date.
UNH shares have plunged YTD, but regulatory risks, cost pressures and earnings downgrades keep it far from a bargain.
UnitedHealth, a managed healthcare firm that provides health insurance, pharmacy benefit management, and care delivery to millions of clients, is now a $275 billion (by market cap) healthcare giant. UNH ended last fiscal year with more than $75 billion in cash, cash equivalent, available-for-sale debt securities, and equity securities balances. UnitedHealth increased its dividend for 15 consecutive years, with a 10-year dividend growth rate of 19.3%.
UnitedHealth stands to gain billions in recurring revenue from GOP Medicaid reforms, leveraging managed care expansion and value-based contracts across multiple states. The company's scale, expertise in high-value populations, and integrated Optum platform position it as a top partner for state Medicaid transitions. Despite political and state-level risks, UNH's geographic diversification and operational efficiency provide resilience and sustained growth potential.
Andrew Witty, who largely led the U.S. healthcare giant from the U.K., made big bets on Medicare enrollees that backfired.
The worst-case scenario of big global tariffs and a severe recession is now off the table, lowering risk and supporting a new bull market. UnitedHealth offers a Buffett-style deep value opportunity after a 50% drop, with long-term growth and credit quality intact. UNH's historical growth rate of 14% to 15% is expected to continue after 2025, which results in a 240% return potential (25% CAGR) over five years.
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UnitedHealth stock has been crashing since it hit $600 back in December, and I think it's bottomed out. Leadership passing, leadership resignation, and a recent news report have helped get us to $295 per share. The fact remains, however, that UnitedHealth is huge, controlling 15% of the U.S. health care insurance market, with Optum on my radar to drive upside.
In the most recent trading session, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) closed at $298.17, indicating a +0.02% shift from the previous trading day.
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