I reiterate my hold rating on Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares due to limited upside amid uncertain macro conditions and elevated valuations. Moody's U.S. credit downgrade and rising Treasury yields signal increased risk, but I don't expect a revisit of April's lows. S&P 500 trades above 21x forward earnings, with profit estimates falling and expensive sector valuations keeping me cautious.
For many passive investors and prospective early retirees, it's as simple as plowing as much of one's cash into an ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) that mirrors the S&P 500 or the total U.S.
The past several months have delivered a sobering reality check to U.S. investors. After the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.63%) reached its all-time high on Feb. 19, 2025, with a closing value of 6,144.15 and an intraday peak of 6,147.43, markets have experienced a significant pullback.
The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) unlocks next-level diversification and offers a decent dividend.
The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares has had its second-worst start to a year, with a YTD return of -10.4%, underperforming international stocks. Despite strong economic indicators like job growth and retail sales, VTI faces technical challenges and an elevated valuation, justifying a hold rating. The US economy shows signs of resilience, but recession risks for 2025 are rising, impacting market sentiment and earnings expectations.
Investing strategies must adapt to changing market conditions, even if long-term objectives remain the same. I reiterate my sell rating for Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares due to its heavy exposure to big-cap tech and the US-China trade war. VTI's lack of diversification and significant tech sector exposure make it more susceptible to economic and political volatility.
I prefer VOO over VTI due to its better risk mitigation and superior performance in both bull and bear markets. VTI's exposure to mid and small caps increases its volatility, especially in high-interest rate environments, making it less attractive than VOO. Despite VTI's broad diversification, VOO's focus on large caps has consistently outperformed VTI, even during market downturns.
After yesterday's massive rally that saw the stock market add $5.5 trillion in value after President Trump paused for 90 days his sweeping tariff program, stocks look like they will take a breather today.
Since its February peak, the ETF has now pulled back from about $302 to a low of $236.42.
Investors should consider the iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF and its portfolio of 2,506 companies for broad stock market exposure & diversification. In many respects, the ITOT and VTI ETFs are virtually identical, despite the VTI ETF having over 1,000 more companies in its portfolio. Both ETFs have the same very affordable expense fee (0.03%) and both have delivered strong 10-year total returns.
I'm not a permabear, far from it, for the first time in my almost 20 years-long investment career, I'm ringing the alarm bells. Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF is widely diversified by holding 3,615 stocks and the ETF has a small expense ratio of just 0.03%, but its valuations are stretched. VTI's P/E ratio near 30 suggests overvaluation; a return to historical averages could hurt future performance.
I believe the U.S. stock market, particularly the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), presents a short-term buying opportunity due to favorable seasonality and recent market conditions. Despite geopolitical concerns and tariff issues, ETF inflows remain strong, with $111B in February and $200B in early March, indicating investor confidence. Elevated volatility and hedging activities suggest a potential for market stabilization, making VTI a reasonable medium-term play if volatility recedes.