Bonds are paying the best yields in years and still dragging portfolios into the red, leaving investors scrambling for a defensive asset that actually defends. A growing group of Wall Street managers thinks the answer involves shorting Treasuries outright.
Trading activity on the Tradeweb European ETF marketplace reached EUR 69 billion in September, the second-highest level recorded for the month. Six of the ten most actively traded ETFs in September were equity-based, with two gold ETCs and two short-dated fixed income funds making up the remainder. Total consolidated U.S. ETF notional value traded in September reached USD 122 billion, up 52% year-over-year.
The global competition for capital remains the key dynamic keeping yields elevated. Notably, all of the September increase in 10-year Treasury yields came from real yields, as implied by the TIPS market.
I am considering initiating a position in iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF due to rising yields and an attractive 4.2% dividend yield. AGG offers portfolio diversification and relative stability versus income stocks but faces near-term downside risk if bond yields continue rising. Current fiscal and geopolitical instability, persistent inflation, and high interest rates suggest waiting before entering AGG, with incremental buying planned if prices decline.
Asian market opened the week firmer on Monday as a sharp slowdown in US hiring pushed investors towards a Federal Reserve pause this month, giving rate-sensitive technology stocks room to rebound. Japan led the advance, with the Nikkei 225 jumping 2.5% above 70,000 to a three-month high, while Taiwan's Taiex gained about 2.6%.
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