Tariffs, Tensions, And Repriced Risk
U.S. equity markets advanced this week as investors parsed a deluge of headlines, including a major Supreme Court tariff ruling, escalating Middle East tensions, soft economic data, and hawkish Fed-speak. The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 to restrict the President's authority to impose broader tariffs under the IEEPA framework, a widely expected move that was quickly countered by the White House. Investors also shrugged off renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which sent oil prices to seven-month highs. The S&P 500 advanced 1.1% - its best weekly gains since early January.
VGMS: This New Low-Cost Active Bond ETF Is Growing
VGMS: This New Low-Cost Active Bond ETF Is Growing
From Silicon To Steel: The Value Trade Returns
U.S. equity markets diverged sharply as cooling labor data revived Fed rate-cut expectations, accelerating a value rotation and pressuring growth amid scrutiny and an unwind of the dollar debasement trade. With the January BLS payrolls report delayed, investors instead reacted to softer-than-expected JOLTS, ADP, Challenger, and initial claims data, interrupting a stretch of resilient economic releases and tempering risk sentiment. Meanwhile, the busiest week of corporate earnings season raised questions around where long-term value from booming AI spending ultimately accrues, both within the AI ecosystem and across the broader economy.
AGG: Muted Volatility And Light Positioning, Why That's Bullish
I reiterate a buy rating on iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG), citing strong fixed income fundamentals and positive real yield prospects. AGG's 4.4% yield, low volatility, and favorable risk-adjusted returns make it an attractive core holding for balanced portfolios. Investor allocations to AGG remain light post-2022, suggesting potential upside as sentiment shifts back toward traditional fixed income.
The Polar Pivot
Ahead of the Fed meeting, U.S. equity markets declined modestly this week as investors navigated a fresh bout of global rate volatility amid headline churn out of Davos and Japan. Markets drew relief from de-escalation in the Greenland saga, as the White House backed away from military and tariff threats after agreeing to a NATO framework enabling expanded U.S. influence. Speculation ramped up around the next Fed Chair, with BlackRock's Rick Rieder suddenly viewed as the betting favorite, a candidate that markets view as a pragmatic and more centrist alternative.
AGG vs. BND: Comparing Two of the Most Widely Traded Bond Funds
BND and AGG deliver nearly identical costs and yields, but BND holds more higher-rated bonds. Both ETFs posted small price gains in 2025, but it's a positive sign as the bond market continues to rebound from its historic crash in 2022.
Strong Performance & Income From a Unique High Yield ETF
In terms of sheer size, DWS may not compete with the Vanguards and BlackRocks in the ETF space when it comes to garnering the most market share. However, it does something to discern itself from the masses: offer unique ETF products.
REITs: A Long, Difficult Decade
U.S. equity markets stumbled to close out the year, while long-term interest rates swelled toward four-month highs, as investors digested resilient economic data and locked in gains from 2025 leaders. The tranquil holiday season was jolted by dramatic geopolitical developments over the weekend, after a U.S. military operation captured and extradited Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro. The stunningly bold strike furthered an ongoing hemispheric realignment, and at minimum, shifted control of the world's largest known oil reserves away from China and Russia toward the United States.
The Ghost Of Inflation Past
U.S. equity markets posted mixed performance as surprisingly cool inflation data and soft employment data were tempered by a hawkish pushback from Fed officials and skeptics clinging to inflation fears. The critical CPI report showed inflation easing to four-year lows, a heavily criticized report that may, ironically, be the most accurate inflation reading in several years due to collection limitations. The report "zeroed out" shelter inflation due to incomplete collection, combined with an antiquated and lagged sampling methodology, effectively "correcting" its data by removing the most persistent source of distortion.
Everyone Hates REITs - A Contrarian Opportunity
REITs endured a brutal three-plus-year stretch since March 2022, underperforming the S&P 500 by an unprecedented 70 percentage points, far worse than the Global Financial Crisis. Extreme underperformance has left REITs historically cheap despite solid property-level fundamentals, but this valuation discount carries a cost: elevated capital costs, suppressed transaction activity, and limited external growth opportunities. Depressed public-market valuations have triggered a pronounced “REIT exodus,” with 40 REITs acquired, liquidated, or seeking sales since 2022, while new REIT formation has collapsed to a fraction of norms.
High-Yield Confidence: Advisors Lean Into Credit in the New Year
Many advisors and investors are contemplating or actively adjusting their portfolios for the new year. That's why the insights gathered from attendees at last week's VettaFi 2026 Market Outlook Symposium were so compelling.
The Cut Countdown
U.S. equity markets climbed to the cusp of fresh record-highs as another soft slate of employment data and modest PCE inflation data helped solidify the case for another rate cut. ADP provided the most evident signs of cooling labor markets, posting job losses in three of the past six months and a cooldown in wage growth to four-year lows. The PCE report showed corresponding disinflation in discretionary services categories, offsetting modest upward pressures on goods prices, resulting in the first monthly deceleration in core inflation since April.
