British American Tobacco earns a Buy rating at ~$53, driven by Velo's rapid growth and improving profit mix. Velo's dominance in Modern Oral, with strong US and European market shares, underpins BTI's long-term growth prospects. New Categories' margin expansion and cost savings initiatives position BTI for 5–8% EPS growth and attractive total returns.
British American Tobacco trades at 11x 2026 earnings with a 6.31% yield, despite strong operational progress and robust free cash flow guidance. BTI's New Category revenue grew 18% with contribution margin rising to 13.8%, and Velo now leads the global Modern Oral market. Management reaffirmed 2030 targets: 3–5% revenue growth, 4–6% APFO growth, 5–8% EPS growth, and over £50 billion FCF from 2024–2030.
A diversified combustible portfolio across premium, value, and discount positioning along with high-growth vapor/oral offerings underscores BTI's future resilience amid secular declines. H2'26 may deliver expanded US total nicotine volume shares, given the upcoming launches of Velo with higher strengths/limited edition flavors and Vuse Pro's fruit-flavored pods. The recent stock price meltdown triggers BTI's discounted P/E of 11.13x, richer forward dividend yields of 6.28%, and expanded upside potential to my LTPT of $64.
British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) Analyst/Investor Day Transcript
Both BTI and PM fund generous dividends from a shrinking cigarette business, but one company's smoke-free pivot has already changed what its payout is built on, and that gap matters far more than the headline yield difference.
British American Tobacco NYSE: BTI outlined its Horizon 2030 strategy at its 2026 Capital Markets Day, targeting growth in smokeless nicotine products while maintaining combustibles as a cash-generating business that funds investment, dividends and share buybacks.
British American Tobacco NYSE: BTI used its 2026 Capital Markets Day to outline its Horizon 2030 strategy, emphasizing growth in modern oral nicotine products, a turnaround in the U.S. business, continued cash generation from combustibles and greater use of artificial intelligence across operations.
British American Tobacco NYSE: BTI used its Horizon 2030 Capital Markets Day in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, to outline plans to expand its smokeless portfolio, advocate for tobacco harm reduction regulation and deliver growth, margin expansion and shareholder returns through 2030.
Tobacco companies spend almost nothing on new equipment yet generate billions in cash, and a handful of US-listed names funnel that surplus straight into shareholder pockets through yields that most sectors cannot touch.
PM, BTI and MO are navigating volume pressure and rising costs by expanding smoke-free portfolios and adapting to shifting consumer demand.
British American Tobacco's Modern Oral segment grew 65.9% in H1'26 and is now the company's largest New Category while holding a 39.2% volume share in top markets. Sweden, Norway, Poland, and the US show how oral nicotine expands the pool of users as cigarettes decline. A reverse DCF shows that the shares at $55 look to price Modern Oral at a mere 16% CAGR, while this segment has been compounding at 47-66% recently.
British American Tobacco offers compelling value trading at 11.5x forward earnings with a 6% dividend yield. NGP revenue grew 18% YoY, with Velo now the global leader in Modern Oral and strong U.S. market share gains. Management guides for 5–8% adjusted EPS growth in 2026, supported by NGP momentum and improving profitability.