KOLD is a 2x leveraged inverse ETF on natural gas, best suited for day trading due to its daily reset and compounding risks. Holding KOLD beyond a single day can lead to significant performance deviations, especially in volatile natural gas markets. My long-term bullish outlook on natural gas makes KOLD unattractive for buy-and-hold investors; however, exogenous events may create appealing volatility for day traders.
Natural gas prices are highly volatile, with significant price swings influenced by seasonal demand, weather conditions, and inventory levels. Leveraged ETFs like ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF and ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF offer short-term trading opportunities, providing 2x exposure to natural gas price movements but require disciplined risk management. U.S. natural gas inventories have declined significantly, supporting higher futures prices and contributing to recent market rallies.
Natural gas prices are highly seasonal, with peaks during winter heating demand and potential rallies in summer due to air-conditioning needs. Current high inventory levels and the incoming administration's pledge to increase oil and gas output suggest limited upside for natural gas prices. The ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF offers a leveraged bearish position on natural gas futures, suitable for short-term trades.
ARCA Exchange | US Country |
The fund focuses on achieving its investment objective by primarily investing in Natural Gas futures contracts. It adopts a strategic approach to navigate through various market conditions and aims to capitalize on the investment opportunities within the Natural Gas market. In scenarios where direct investment in futures contracts is not feasible or prudent due to market emergencies, disruptions, or extreme volatility, the fund demonstrates flexibility by considering alternative investment options such as swaps. This adaptive investment strategy is designed to maintain operational continuity and seek optimal investment outcomes, even in less than ideal market conditions.
This product is at the core of the fund's investment strategy. Futures contracts are agreements to buy or sell a specific amount of natural gas at a predetermined price on a specific date in the future. By investing in these contracts, the fund seeks to profit from the fluctuation in natural gas prices. The fund's involvement in the futures market is a reflection of its focus on the energy sector, particularly natural gas, and its expertise in predicting and capitalizing on market trends.
In certain conditions, such as during a trading halt, flash crash, periods of volatility, or illiquidity in the futures market, the fund may opt to invest in swaps. Swaps are derivative contracts through which two parties exchange financial instruments. These can include various types of investments, but in the context of this fund, they primarily involve exchanging cash flows based on the underlying natural gas prices without requiring the physical exchange of assets. This strategy offers the fund flexibility and the ability to maintain exposure to natural gas prices, even when direct investment in futures is considered impractical or risky.