Molina Healthcare reported a disastrous Q4, with a 94.6% MCR and a net loss, slashing 2026 EPS guidance to $5. MOH's management assumptions on claims inflation (5%) lack credibility given recent underestimates and industry trends; margin control remains unproven. New RFP wins, including a $6bn Florida contract, add $9bn in 2026 premiums but introduce substantial risk of underpricing and adverse selection.
Molina Healthcare posts Q4 loss as medical costs surge, even as revenues rise 8% and full-year sales top expectations.
The headline numbers for Molina (MOH) give insight into how the company performed in the quarter ended December 2025, but it may be worthwhile to compare some of its key metrics to Wall Street estimates and the year-ago actuals.
Molina (MOH) came out with a quarterly loss of $2.75 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.43. This compares to earnings of $5.05 per share a year ago.
MOH heads into Q4 earnings with EPS seen plunging 92.5% year over year as costs rise, even as revenues and premiums are projected to grow.
Molina Healthcare partners with Aeroflow Health to expand nutrition counseling and diabetes care for the former's Commercial and Medicare members in South Carolina.
Molina Healthcare faces a 2025 margin collapse due to elevated medical costs, but sector-wide premium hikes are expected to restore profitability in 2026. MOH is structurally insulated from Medicare Advantage regulatory risks, with earnings less exposed to CMS audit and coding volatility than larger peers. Shares trade at depressed valuations (NTM EV/EBITDA 6.6x, 2026 FCF yield 11-12%), and management is executing opportunistic buybacks at these levels.
The company faces escalating operational and financial pressures that threaten its outlook.
Molina Healthcare stock (NYSE: MOH) has dropped approximately 27% over the past month. This decline is attributable to several significant negative developments following its Q3 2025 report:
Molina Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:MOH ) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 23, 2025 8:00 AM EDT Company Participants Jeffrey Geyer - Head of Investor Relations Joseph Zubretsky - President, CEO & Director Mark Keim - Senior EVP, CFO & Treasurer Conference Call Participants Andrew Mok - Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division Stephen Baxter - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division Albert Rice - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Joshua Raskin - Nephron Research LLC Justin Lake - Wolfe Research, LLC Kevin Fischbeck - BofA Securities, Research Division Scott Fidel - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division John Stansel - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division Ryan Langston - TD Cowen, Research Division Erin Wilson Wright - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Lance Wilkes - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC.
MOH's Q3 earnings plunge 69% as rising medical and administrative costs offset higher premiums and revenue gains.
Molina (MOH) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock?