Mosaic (MOS) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock?
Mosaic (MOS) offers an attractive risk/reward profile at current valuations, with 50% upside potential and limited downside already below tangible book value. MOS faces ongoing production challenges, but tight global phosphate and potash supply, plus strong ag demand, provide downside protection for investors. Valuation scenarios suggest fair value of $36 per share in a base case, while a bear case implies 1 to 2 dollars of downside from current levels.
I'm upgrading The Mosaic Company to Buy now as shares trade below intrinsic value, offering significant recovery potential after recent declines. MOS' fundamentals are improving, with cost savings, higher production, and capital reallocation activities supporting a stronger balance sheet. Macro catalysts include US rate cuts, US-China trade deal, and potential global economic improvements, all benefiting MOS' industry outlook.
The Mosaic Company ( MOS ) Q3 2025 Earnings Call November 5, 2025 11:00 AM EST Company Participants Jason Tremblay - Vice President of Enterprise Strategy & Business Support Bruce Bodine - CEO, President & Director Jenny Wang - Executive Vice President of Commercial Luciano Pires - Executive VP & CFO Conference Call Participants Christopher Parkinson - Wolfe Research, LLC Joel Jackson - BMO Capital Markets Equity Research Andrew Wong - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division Lucas Beaumont - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Matthew DeYoe - BofA Securities, Research Division Suk Lee - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division Benjamin Theurer - Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division Edlain Rodriguez - Mizuho Securities USA LLC, Research Division David Symonds - BNP Paribas, Research Division Kristen Owen - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division Vincent Andrews - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Presentation Operator Good morning, and welcome to The Mosaic Company's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] And now I'll turn the call over to Jason Tremblay.
MOS posts Q3 earnings and revenue beats, driven by higher prices and strong Potash and Phosphate segment performance.
Mosaic (MOS) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.04 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.98 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.34 per share a year ago.
MOS is expected to have gained from higher prices and cost cuts amid headwinds from weaker phosphate volumes.
Mosaic remains fundamentally strong despite a Q3 production miss due to mechanical issues, creating a potential buying opportunity after a 10% sell-off. MOS benefited from robust potash and phosphate prices in H1 2025, driving margins and earnings higher despite only modest revenue growth. Q3 phosphate production fell short of guidance, but potash and Brazilian operations performed well; management asserts production issues are resolved.
Mosaic (MOS) might move higher on growing optimism about its earnings prospects, which is reflected by its upgrade to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
Mosaic's $111M sale of its idled Brazil phosphate mine frees capital for higher-return assets while shedding operational and regulatory risks.
Mosaic is riding strong fertilizer demand, higher phosphate and potash prices and cost-cutting moves to boost profitability and growth.
Mosaic delivered Q2 2025 revenues of $3.01B, adjusted EBITDA of $566M, and net income of $411M, showing stronger margins despite lower volumes versus prior cycle highs. Reliability improvements in Florida phosphate operations sustained DAP margins above $500/t, while Hydrofloat technology in Esterhazy reduced potash production costs by $60/t, structurally changing Mosaic's cost base. In Brazil, Mosaic Fertilizantes reported 2.2 Mt volumes and $159M EBITDA, with Palmeirante's 1 Mt facility enabling long-term distribution growth toward 13–14 Mt by decade's end.