Put Traders Should Keep an Eye on Mosaic Stock
Agricultural chemical stock Mosaic Co (NYSE:MOS) has been climbing since the start of the year, up 18% so far.
MOS Updates on Market and Issues Preliminary Q4 Sales Volumes
Mosaic flags weak Q4 fertilizer demand, with phosphate shipments down 20% YoY and preliminary volumes of 1.3Mt phosphate and 2.2Mt potash.
Mosaic to Divest New Mexico Potash Operations in $30M Deal
MOS agreed to sell its Carlsbad potash operations for $30 million, exiting New Mexico to streamline assets and focus potash production on Saskatchewan.
Mosaic: Slow Growth, Deep Value
Mosaic's relative valuation suggests it's significantly undervalued. For instance, its EV/Revenue multiple suggests a 37% upside. I expect MOS to have a 29% upside, based on these assumptions: revenues growing at 4% CAGR and a net margin of 9% (which is 130 basis points below the current level). Across the entire P&L, everything hinges on phosphate and potash prices. Tonnage has been flat for the last three years, though we've seen some improvement over the last two quarters.
Why Is Mosaic (MOS) Down 7.7% Since Last Earnings Report?
Mosaic (MOS) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock?
Mosaic Has Asymmetric Upside On Critical Infrastructure
Mosaic (MOS) offers an attractive risk/reward profile at current valuations, with 50% upside potential and limited downside already below tangible book value. MOS faces ongoing production challenges, but tight global phosphate and potash supply, plus strong ag demand, provide downside protection for investors. Valuation scenarios suggest fair value of $36 per share in a base case, while a bear case implies 1 to 2 dollars of downside from current levels.
Mosaic: Upgrading To Buy On Stronger Fundamentals And Attractive Valuation
I'm upgrading The Mosaic Company to Buy now as shares trade below intrinsic value, offering significant recovery potential after recent declines. MOS' fundamentals are improving, with cost savings, higher production, and capital reallocation activities supporting a stronger balance sheet. Macro catalysts include US rate cuts, US-China trade deal, and potential global economic improvements, all benefiting MOS' industry outlook.
The Mosaic Company (MOS) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
The Mosaic Company ( MOS ) Q3 2025 Earnings Call November 5, 2025 11:00 AM EST Company Participants Jason Tremblay - Vice President of Enterprise Strategy & Business Support Bruce Bodine - CEO, President & Director Jenny Wang - Executive Vice President of Commercial Luciano Pires - Executive VP & CFO Conference Call Participants Christopher Parkinson - Wolfe Research, LLC Joel Jackson - BMO Capital Markets Equity Research Andrew Wong - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division Lucas Beaumont - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Matthew DeYoe - BofA Securities, Research Division Suk Lee - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division Benjamin Theurer - Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division Edlain Rodriguez - Mizuho Securities USA LLC, Research Division David Symonds - BNP Paribas, Research Division Kristen Owen - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division Vincent Andrews - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Presentation Operator Good morning, and welcome to The Mosaic Company's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] And now I'll turn the call over to Jason Tremblay.
Mosaic's Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates in Q3, Up Y/Y
MOS posts Q3 earnings and revenue beats, driven by higher prices and strong Potash and Phosphate segment performance.
Mosaic (MOS) Beats Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
Mosaic (MOS) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.04 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.98 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.34 per share a year ago.
Mosaic to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Offing for the Stock?
MOS is expected to have gained from higher prices and cost cuts amid headwinds from weaker phosphate volumes.
Mosaic's Pullback On Phosphate Production Struggles Provides An Appealing Entry Point
Mosaic remains fundamentally strong despite a Q3 production miss due to mechanical issues, creating a potential buying opportunity after a 10% sell-off. MOS benefited from robust potash and phosphate prices in H1 2025, driving margins and earnings higher despite only modest revenue growth. Q3 phosphate production fell short of guidance, but potash and Brazilian operations performed well; management asserts production issues are resolved.
