The chip maker's shares were steadying Friday as the market digests news about the initial public offerings of OpenAI and Firmus.
The chip maker quietly signaled a new way of thinking about the competing demands of capital returns and building its AI ecosystem.
Australian cloud-computing firm Firmus Grid had sought a $30 billion valuation despite having only two operational data centers.
The cloud-computing company scrapped plans for what would have been Australia's largest initial public offering in almost 30 years.
President Trump on Thursday announced a $2.4 billion commitment from major tech giants including Nvidia, OpenAI and Anthropic to support federal agencies' AI-driven scientific research.
Nvidia is leveraging its massive free cash flow to finance AI infrastructure, shifting from equity investments to providing backstops and lending for data center buildouts. NVDA's direct equity stakes in AI startups like OpenAI and Anthropic are minor relative to its market cap, with potential gains amounting to less than 2% of valuation. By supporting up to $500B in AI hardware spending with limited risk, NVDA can generate gross profits that far exceed potential backstop losses, reinforcing its dominant position.
Nvidia is positioned for outsized growth through 2027, driven by robust AI demand signals from supply chain and cloud partners. NVDA's record $150 billion buyback and expanding software ecosystem, including the Hugging Face acquisition, reinforce management's confidence and competitive moat. Consensus EPS for FY2028 has risen to $15.91, with NVDA trading at ~15x forward earnings—well below its historical average multiple.
Nvidia's valuation has undergone a significant reset, with its forward multiple near decade lows even as revenue and earnings expectations continue to move higher. The market appears to be pricing in a normalization of AI spending, margins, and growth rather than an outright breakdown of the AI investment cycle. The key question is whether Nvidia's valuation already reflects the risks of slower AI spending, margin pressure, and normalization.
NVIDIA just posted triple-digit revenue growth and Wall Street is calling for another 40% gain, yet the stock keeps dropping after every earnings beat.
Sometimes, there's safety in size. Semiconductor Goliath Nvidia (NVDA) is proving as much.
Nvidia stock has wavered since breaking through to a record high earlier this week. One massive options buyer is confident of further gains.
Elon Musk's SpaceX is aiming to raise $40 billion in bank loans and debt to further its purchases of AI chips from Nvidia, according to a Financial Times report citing sources close to the talks.