Oracle Corporation is upgraded to Strong Buy as its stock forms a long-term bottom near 2025 lows, offering highly compelling risk/reward. Oracle's $25B bond sale was met with record demand, alleviating funding concerns for its $500B+ RPO backlog, $300B of which is tied to OpenAI. Despite negative FCF prospects through 2029 and a highly leveraged balance sheet, Oracle's AI infrastructure buildout and integrated portfolio remain key growth drivers.
Oracle ( NYSE:ORCL ) shares are making a strong comeback today, shaking off ongoing worries about the company's hefty spending, climbing debt, and the risks of its all-in bet on artificial intelligence (AI) cloud infrastructure.
Oracle shares have been battered by OpenAI jitters and a broader software selloff, but one analyst argues the market has overcorrected.
Oracle (ORCL) stock has slid 13.2% over the last five trading sessions, fueled by mounting concerns over AI infrastructure liabilities, bondholder litigation, and the potential for AI to disrupt its core software business. This sharp decline raises a critical question: Is this a temporary setback, or does it signal a fundamental breakdown in the company's long-term narrative?
Oracle is rated a strong buy, targeting $320 per share by 2028–2029, implying 100% upside from a value-tranche strategy. ORCL's $523B RPO backlog, robust cloud growth, and durable legacy cash flows underpin the investment thesis despite the recent price collapse. Heavy capex, significant debt, and liquidity constraints are key risks, but tranching and incremental additions mitigate downside exposure.
Hammered by the general software selloff and AI debt concerns, shares of Oracle have shed 22% over eight trading sessions
ORCL is down 42% in six months, but a $523 billion backlog, rapid cloud growth and multi-cloud momentum offer reasons to hold despite execution worries.
I maintain a Hold rating, emphasizing the need for Oracle to demonstrate consistent cash generation as its AI strategy matures. RPO surged and improved visibility, but increased concentration risk and delayed cash generation. Cloud Infrastructure is driving growth, while legacy software and SaaS remain much slower.
Oracle (ORCL) concluded the recent trading session at $146.67, signifying a -5.17% move from its prior day's close.
In my view, Oracle has become an OpenAI sentiment story. Oracle plans to raise $45B–$50B of gross cash proceeds through a balanced mix of debt and equity, with concrete details on both. I see this as a positive development. The market sold Oracle slightly after the financing news because I believe it didn't answer the core question: how OpenAI will pay for the widely reported $300B compute commitments.
Oracle is executing a bold transformation that leverages its database core while supplying data center infrastructure. It's also ramping up internal cloud and application products. Growth is fueled by major AI/cloud contracts and acquisitions, while high capex, debt, and a large backlog raise investor concerns. Cloud infrastructure revenue surged 66% to $4.1B in Q2 2026, with GPU-related revenue up 177%.
Oracle Corporation is executing a $50 billion capital raise to fund major AI data center projects and address market concerns over funding risks. ORCL's AI-driven growth is underappreciated, with revenue forecast to surge from $57 billion in FY25 to $225 billion in FY30 and EPS tripling. Despite $108 billion in debt and negative free cash flow from heavy capex, ORCL generates strong operating cash flows and is de-risking its capital structure.