PGJ: High Volatility And Structural Challenges Ahead
Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF has underperformed with a volatile history and an annualized total return of only 4.7% since inception. PGJ is heavily concentrated in consumer discretionary stocks, making it highly sensitive to economic cycles and vulnerable during downturns. China's long-term structural challenges, including population decline, high household debt, and a housing market bubble burst, will likely hinder PGJ's future performance.
Bullish On China, But Not On PGJ
Chinese stocks appear undervalued and could offer diversification from US markets, which are currently priced for perfection. Valuations in China are much lower compared to the US, making it a contrarian buy, especially during periods of negative sentiment. Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF is holding mostly ADRs from technology companies, which comes with additional risks, which I am not comfortable with.
